Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Regional Landscapes at Hilly Mountainous Areas in Zhejiang and Fujian Based on PLUS-ESV Model
The established studies focusing on the regional landscape in Zhejiang and Fujian have paid insufficient attention to inland areas,and there are relatively few mesoscale county studies and quantitative studies.Taking Shaxian County of Fujian as a research object,we simulate and predict three development scenarios in 2030 using the landscape pattern index,PLUS model,and ecosystem service value assessment(ESV)based on remote sensing data,nature and society open-source data and statistical yearbooks,to reveal the spatial pattern of regional landscapes and the spatio-temporal evolution of the ESV since 1990.It is aimed to provide strong supports for the sustainable development of the inland human settlements in Zhejiang and Fujian,represented by Shaxian County.The results show that:1)From 1990 to 2020,the forestland conversion to farmland increased,and construction area increased significantly;2)From 1990 to 2020,landscape fragmentation,complexity,dispersion and heterogeneity increased,and connectivity and aggregation of dominant patches of the landscapes decreased.The ESV declines at an accelerated rate,and the conversion of the areas with higher values to the areas with medium and lower value areas were accelerated;and 3)In 2030,landscape fragmentation will be the lowest while the ESV will be the highest under the scenario of ecological protection.The ecological protection scenario can maximize the preservation of the regional landscapes with the characteristics of Shaxian County,which integrates mountains,waters,forests,farmlands,urban area and rural area,and remains the most consistent with the requirements for high-quality development,such as"eco-livability"and"happy life"in the region.
regional landscapePLUS modelecosystem services valuationmulti-scenario simulationhilly mountainous area
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
