Simulation of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Guangzhou Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model
Rapid industrialization and urbanization have significant impacts on the carbon sequestration capacity of urban ecosystems.With the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Guangzhou City,the temporal and spatial changes in land use and carbon storage are analyzed by coupling with the PLUS-InVEST model to explore the influencing factors to carbon sequestration in different urban-rural gradients.Three development scenarios are set up to simulate and predict the evolution of land use changes and carbon storage spatial patterns.The results show:1)In 2000-2010,Guangzhou had a relatively severe loss of carbon storage,while the loss rate slowed down in 2010-2020.The conversion of forest land and farming land to construction land is the pivotal factor to this decline;2)Across the urban,suburban,and city-wide gradients,factors such as NDVI,DEM,slope,average annual evaporation,average annual precipitation,and soil moisture content positively correlate with carbon storage while average annual temperature,night light index,GDP,and road network density display a negative correlation with carbon storage;and 3)The carbon storage in the three scenarios presents a declining trend for the future,while under the future natural development,economic priority,and comprehensive development scenarios,though the rate of decline is mitigated,while the comprehensive development scenario sees the smallest decline of carbon storage.Spatially,all of the three scenarios present the distribution characteristics of high in the north and low in the south.The results of the study are conducive to optimizing the carbon cycle of ecosystems and promoting sustainable regional development in the cities in shortage of land resources.
万方数据
