首页|构建与验证低剂量CT参数对肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的预测模型

构建与验证低剂量CT参数对肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的预测模型

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目的 基于低剂量CT定量参数构建肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的预测模型,并验证模型预测效能.方法 纳入我院2021年3月~2023年3月收治的病理证实的肺混合磨玻璃结节患者102例进行回顾性研究,根据病理结果及肺腺癌分类标准分成浸润性腺癌(IA)组(n=71)、非IA组(n=31).患者入院后均接受低剂量CT扫描,并进行定量参数分析,比较两组结节最大直径、结节体积、结节最大横截面积、结节最大垂直长径、结节质量、平均CT值,利用多因素Logistic回归模型分析肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的影响因素.基于回归分析结果构建列线图模型,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线与Hosmer-Lemeshow检验进行内部验证,分析模型预测效能.结果 IA组结节最大直径、结节最大横截面积、结节最大垂直长径、结节质量、结节体积高于非IA组(P<0.05).多因素Logistic回归分析提示,结节最大直径(OR:2.675,95%CI:1.298-5.514)与最大横截面积(OR:2.380,95%CI:1.435-3.946)增高是肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的独立危险因素(P<0.05).基于多因素分析结果构建列线图模型,经校准曲线、决策曲线提示模型可靠,ROC曲线提示该模型预测肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性的曲线下面积为0.902(标准误:0.029,P<0.001,95%CI:0.845-0.958),敏感度80.28%,特异度80.65%.Hosmer-Lemeshow检验提示拟合度好(x 2=2.596,P=0.581).结论 低剂量CT定量参数中结节最大直径、最大横截面积与肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性相关,基于上述参数构建模型,能对肺混合磨玻璃结节侵袭性进行预测评估.
To Construct and Verify the Prediction Model of Low-dose CT Parameters on the Invasiveness of Pulmonary Mixed Glass Nodules
Objective The prediction model of lung mixed glass nodule invasiveness was established based on quantitative parameters of low-dose CT,and the prediction efficiency of the model was verified.Methods Retrospective study was performed on 102 patients with pathologically proven pulmonary mixed ground glass nodule admitted to our hospital from March 2021 to March 2023,who were divided into invasive adenocarcinoma(IA)group(n=71)and non-IA group(n=31)according to pathological results and classification criteria of lung adenocarcinoma.All patients received low-dose CT scan after admission,and quantitative parameter analysis was performed to compare the maximum diameter,volume,maximum cross-sectional area,maximum vertical length diameter,nodule mass and average CT value of the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting the invasiveness of pulmonary mixed glass nodules.Based on the results of regression analysis,a nomogram model was constructed,which was internally verified by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test to analyze the predictive efficiency of the model.Results Nodule maximum diameter,nodule maximum cross-sectional area,nodule maximum vertical length diameter,nodule mass and nodule volume in group IA were higher than those in non-IA group(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that the increase of maximum nodule diameter(OR:2.675,95%CI:1.298-5.514)and maximum cross-sectional area(OR:2.380,95%CI:1.435-3.946)were independent risk factors for invasivity of pulmonary mixed glass nodules(P<0.05).Based on the results of multi-factor analysis,a nomogram model is constructed.The calibration curve and decision curve indicate that the model is reliable.The ROC curve indicated that the area under the curve of the model was 0.902(standard error:0.029,P<0.001,95%CI:0.845-0.958),sensitivity was 80.28%,and specificity was 80.65%.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit(x2=2.596,P=0.581).Conclusion The maximum diameter and cross-sectional area of nodules in low-dose CT quantitative parameters are correlated with the invasiveness of pulmonary mixed glass nodules.Based on the above parameters,a model can be built to predict and evaluate the invasiveness of pulmonary mixed glass nodules.

Lung Mixed Glass NodulesInvasiveLow-dose CTQuantitative ParametersPrediction Model

董旭鹏、张晶晶、李甲男、张强、王文文

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秦皇岛市第一医院(河北秦皇岛 066000)

潍坊市中医院(山东潍坊 261041)

肺混合磨玻璃结节 侵袭性 低剂量CT 定量参数 预测模型

河北省省级科技计划秦皇岛市科学技术研究与发展计划

G2018058201902A110

2024

中国CT和MRI杂志
北京大学深圳临床医学院 北京大学第一医院

中国CT和MRI杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.578
ISSN:1672-5131
年,卷(期):2024.22(4)
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