Infectious disease modelling study of early epidemiological trends and vaccine interventions in emerging infectious diseases
Objective To construct a kinetic model of infectious diseases to simulate the early epidemic trend of emerging infectious diseases,and to evaluate the impact of vaccine factors on the early epidemic progress in different scenarios,so as to provide a theoretical basis for early response strategies to outbreaks or pandemics,especially vaccine intervention strategies.Methods The key parameters were determined through literature retrieval,Bayesian inference,and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm(MCMC)to establish the kinetic model of infectious diseases,and the constructed model was used to simulate the role of vaccines in different scenarios.Results The fitting curve of the SAPHIREV model constructed in this study can better reflect the epidemic trend of the original epidemic.Through scenario simulation,assuming that the vaccine efficacy(ρ)is 0.36,and the vaccination rate is 15 000/day,95 000/day and 140 000/day,the epidemic scale decreases by 18.04％,66.10％and 74.23％,respectively.Assuming that ρ increased to 0.8,and the vaccination rate is 95 000/day,the epidemic scale changes little,but the time of returning to zero of confirmed cases is advanced.Conclusion In the face of emerging infectious diseases,early formulation of vaccine strategies,development of high-efficiency vaccines,and emphasis on emergency preparedness are key measures to control the epidemic.
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