Prediction of iodine nutrition of key population in Qinghai Province based on GM(1,1)model
Objective To predict the iodine nutrition status of key population in Qinghai Province by establishing GM(1,1)model,so as to provide reference for iodine deficiency disorders prevention and control in Qinghai Province in the future.Methods A GM(1,1)model was established based on the evaluation data of population iodine nutrition in Qinghai Province from 2017 to 2021,and the data indexes in the next 5 years were predicted.Results The small probability error of the median urine iodine of 8-10-year-old children and the median salt iodine of pregnant women was 0.600,indicating that the accuracy of the model was unqualified,and the posterior difference ratio C was 0.479 4 and 0.371 1,respectively,indicating that the accuracy of the model was level 2.The small error probability P value of the other indicators was 1.000,the posterior difference ratio C was less than 0.35,and the model fitting accuracy was 1 level(good).The average relative errors of GM(1,1)prediction models were median salt iodine(0.061 6％)and median urine iodine(1.559 4％)of children aged 8-10,and median salt iodine(0.714 6％)and urinary iodine(3.076 4％)of pregnant women.The relative errors were all less than 0.1,indicating that the model fitting effect of each index was good.It is estimated that by 2026,the medians of salt iodine and urinary iodine of children agd 8-10 in Qinghai Province will reach 28.303 mg/kg and 210.172 μg/L,respectively,and the medians of salt iodine and urine iodine of pregnant women will reach 27.329 mg/kg and 295.343 μg/L,respectively.Conclusion Iodine nutrition of key population in Qinghai Province from 2022 to 2026 showed an increasing trend.By establishing the GM(1,1)model of grey system theory,the fluctuation of related indexes can be predicted theoretically,and corresponding measures can be taken in time to guide scientific iodine supplement.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
