Evaluation Method for Spatial Load Forecasting Error Based on Amplitude-space Characteristic Analysis of the Error
Effective evaluation of spatial load forecasting error is the premise of understanding forecasting results objectively and guiding the rational application of forecasting results.However,the existing research on error evaluation of spatial load forecasting has the problem that the spatial distribution of error is not considered or the evaluation is not accurate enough.Therefore,this paper proposes a spatial load forecasting error evaluation method based on error amplitude-space characteristic analysis.First,the amplitude-space characteristics of the error are analyzed in detail from the perspective of the magnitude of the spatial load forecasting error and the influence of the spatial distribution on the power grid planning.Secondly,the mathematical model of the transportation problem is used to characterize the amplitude-space offset characteristics of positive and negative errors.The sum of the area of each spatial proximity-amplitude error curve and the x-axis is used to characterize the amplitude-space superposition characteristics of the residual offset error.Then,the Vogel method and the trapezoidal area accumulation formula are used to calculate the amplitude-space offset influence value of the positive and negative error and the amplitude-space superposition influence value of the residual error.On this basis,the spatial load forecasting error evaluation index is constructed.Finally,the performance test method of error evaluation index is given based on the actual influence of error on power grid planning.The example analysis shows that compared with the traditional method,the error evaluation method proposed in this paper realizes a more comprehensive evaluation of the spatial load forecasting error from the two dimensions of amplitude and space,which is closer to the actual situation of the influence of error on power grid planning.
万方数据
维普
