不同"碳达峰"情景下火电行业环境效益预测及分析
Prediction and Analysis of Thermal Power Generation Environmental Benefit Under Different"Carbon Peak"Scenarios
刘春景 1吕建燚 1徐卿 1金玉佳 1赵汶畅1
作者信息
- 1. 河北省电厂烟气多污染物控制重点实验室(华北电力大学环境科学与工程系),河北省 保定市 071003
- 折叠
摘要
为了研究"碳达峰"目标下我国火电的环境效益,从我国"十四五"和 2035 年远景目标出发,基于Verhulst灰色模型建立环境效益目标预测模型,设置6 种情景,达峰时间依次为2025-2030年;计算并分析不同情景下CO2、SO2、NOx和颗粒物(particulate matter,PM)排放量和减排量.结果表明,所有情景中,2021 年至达峰年,CO2、SO2、NOx和PM的排放量逐渐上升,达峰后直到2035年快速下降.CO2的减排量在 2035 年前出现正值的情景是 2025 年达峰和2026年达峰.2025年达峰时,2032-2035年的CO2减排累积量为4.31亿t;2026年达峰时,2034年和 2035年的CO2减排累积量为 0.77 亿 t.SO2、NOx 和 PM 的减排量在2021～2035年都为正值.2025年达峰时,2021-2035年SO2、NOx和PM的减排累积量分别是 1 276.73、933.02 和 268.36万t,达峰年推迟将会导致 2021-2035 年SO2、NOx和PM的减排累积量逐渐减少.最后,根据研究结果提出了火电环境效益目标实现路径.
Abstract
In order to study the environmental benefits of thermal power in China under the goal of"carbon peak",starting from China's"14th Five-Year Plan"and the long-term goal of 2035,a prediction model of environmental benefit targets is established based on the Verhulst grey model,and six scenarios are set up with the peak time from 2025 to 2030,and the CO2,SO2,NOx and particulate matter(PM)emissions and emission reductions under different scenarios are calculated and analyzed.The results show that in all scenarios,the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx and PM gradually increase from 2021 to the peak year,and then decrease rapidly until 2035 after the peak.The scenarios in which CO2 emission reductions will be positive before 2035 are the peaks in 2025 and 2026.The cumulative emission reductions of CO2 from 2032 to 2035 are 431 million tons when peaking in 2025;the cumulative CO2 emission reductions from 2034 and 2035 are 77 million tons when peaking in 2026;the emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM are positive from 2021 to 2035.The cumulative emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM from 2021 to 2035 are 1 276.73,933.02 and 268.36 million tons when peaking in 2025.The delay of the peak year will lead to a gradual decrease in the cumulative emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM from 2021 to 2035.Finally,the implementation path of the environmental benefit target of thermal power is proposed according to the research results.
关键词
火力发电/碳达峰/二氧化碳/大气污染物/环境效益Key words
thermal power generation/carbon peak/CO2/atmospheric pollutants/environmental benefits引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据