受高比例新能源并网带来的波动性和间歇性影响，新型电力系统的长周期供需不平衡矛盾日益突出。该文将电力系统的长周期供需不平衡风险分为两部分:连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景和月电量供需不平衡风险。首先，选取连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景，提出基于条件风险价值理论(conditional value at risk，CvaR)的月电量不平衡风险评估模型。在此基础上，提出考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法，通过季节性储能等灵活性资源的优化配置，可有效提升电力系统的长周期平衡能力。最后，基于IEEE RTS-79 算例分析论证了所提方法的有效性，并初步讨论季节性储能在平抑长周期供需不平衡风险方面的作用。
Power System Optimal Planning Method Considering Long-term Imbalance Risk
The increasing renewable penetration in the power system results in the long-term imbalance of the power system.This paper divides the long-term imbalance risk of the power system into two parts:the continuous low-renewable-output event and the long-term monthly energy supply imbalance risk.First,this paper selects the continuous low-renewable-output scenario and proposes a monthly electricity imbalance risk assessment model based on the Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR)theory.On this basis,a power system planning method considering long-term imbalance risk is proposed.Through the optimal allocation of flexible resources such as seasonal energy storage,the long-term adequacy of the power system could be effectively improved.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved based on the case studies on the IEEE RTS-79 system and the role of seasonal energy storage in mitigating long-term imbalance risk is discussed.
high renewable penetrationpower system planningextreme weatherlong-term imbalance riskpower and electricity balanceseasonal storage
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