考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法
Power System Optimal Planning Method Considering Long-term Imbalance Risk
姜海洋 1杜尔顺 2马佳豪 1肖晋宇 3侯金鸣 3张宁1
作者信息
- 1. 新型电力系统运行与控制全国重点实验室(清华大学),北京市 海淀区 100084
- 2. 低碳能源实验室(清华大学),北京市 海淀区 100084
- 3. 全球能源互联网发展合作组织,北京市 西城区 100031
- 折叠
摘要
受高比例新能源并网带来的波动性和间歇性影响,新型电力系统的长周期供需不平衡矛盾日益突出.该文将电力系统的长周期供需不平衡风险分为两部分:连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景和月电量供需不平衡风险.首先,选取连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景,提出基于条件风险价值理论(conditional value at risk,CvaR)的月电量不平衡风险评估模型.在此基础上,提出考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法,通过季节性储能等灵活性资源的优化配置,可有效提升电力系统的长周期平衡能力.最后,基于IEEE RTS-79 算例分析论证了所提方法的有效性,并初步讨论季节性储能在平抑长周期供需不平衡风险方面的作用.
Abstract
The increasing renewable penetration in the power system results in the long-term imbalance of the power system.This paper divides the long-term imbalance risk of the power system into two parts:the continuous low-renewable-output event and the long-term monthly energy supply imbalance risk.First,this paper selects the continuous low-renewable-output scenario and proposes a monthly electricity imbalance risk assessment model based on the Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR)theory.On this basis,a power system planning method considering long-term imbalance risk is proposed.Through the optimal allocation of flexible resources such as seasonal energy storage,the long-term adequacy of the power system could be effectively improved.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved based on the case studies on the IEEE RTS-79 system and the role of seasonal energy storage in mitigating long-term imbalance risk is discussed.
关键词
高比例新能源/电力系统规划/极端天气/长周期供需不平衡风险/电力电量平衡/季节性储能Key words
high renewable penetration/power system planning/extreme weather/long-term imbalance risk/power and electricity balance/seasonal storage引用本文复制引用
基金项目
全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目(SGGEIG00JYJS2200061)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据