"双碳"目标下我国能源电力系统发展趋势分析:绿电替代与绿氢替代

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国家科技期刊平台
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中文摘要：能源电力系统的低碳转型是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的关键所在。为研判"双碳"目标下我国能源电力系统的未来发展趋势，该文构建了考虑绿电替代与绿氢替代的中长期能源电力发展估算模型，基于模型对2020-2060年我国能源电力发展场景进行测算，分析相关核心指标的演化趋势，并针对绿电绿氢与现有能源系统协同发展的多能互补综合能源发展模式提出方案设想。结果表明，以绿电为主、绿氢为辅对传统化石能源的"双替代"，作为实现"双碳"目标的关键措施，将在新型能源体系和新型电力系统建设中发挥决定性作用，分别针对源端能源生产基地和终端消费区域提出的综合能源生产单元(integrated energy production unit，IEPU)和综合能源产消单元(integrated energy production and consumption unit，IECU)设想，可为促进多类型资源协同优化和高效配置、支撑构建新型能源体系与新型电力系统提供方案参考。

外文标题：Analysis of the Development Trend of China's Energy and Power System Under the Dual Carbon Target:Green Electricity Substitution and Green Hydrogen Substitution

外文摘要：The low-carbon transition of energy and power systems is the key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.In order to assess the future development trend of China's energy and power system under the targets,this study constructs a medium-and long-term energy and power development calculating model considering green electricity substitution and green hydrogen substitution.Based on the model,the development scenario of China's energy and power system from 2020 to 2060 is simulated,and the evolution trends of relevant core indicators are analyzed.Finally,for the coordinated development of green electricity,green hydrogen,and existing energy systems,this paper proposes the plans of integrated energy development models.The results indicate that the"dual substitution"of traditional fossil fuels with green electricity as the main source and green hydrogen as a supplement,will play a decisive role in the construction of new energy systems and new power systems.Through the analysis of the concept,structure and function of the integrated energy production unit(IEPU)at the supply side and the integrated energy production and consumption unit(IECU)at the end side,this paper provides a reference for the construction of new energy systems and new power systems.

外文关键词：

green electricity substitutiongreen hydrogen substitutionenergy and power systemdevelopment trendintegrated energy production unitintegrated energy production and consumption unit

作者：

周孝信、赵强、张玉琼、杨宏华

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作者单位：

中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市海淀区 100192

关键词：

绿电替代绿氢替代能源电力系统发展趋势综合能源生产单元综合能源产消单元

基金：

国家电网有限公司科技项目

项目编号：

5100-202355762A-3-5-YS

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240634

中国电机工程学报

中国电机工程学会

中国电机工程学报

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：2.712

ISSN：0258-8013

年,卷(期)：2024.44(17)