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基于序贯Monte Carlo模拟法的MMC系统可靠性分析和维修优化

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现有针对考虑维修时的模块化多电平换流器(modular multilevel converter,MMC)可靠性分析的研究受系统复杂结构的限制,一般对MMC系统的模型进行简化,不能直接建立系统级可靠性模型,且只能得到单个系统可靠度的指标。在考虑预防性维修时,现有研究通常假设系统修复如新,忽略了未更换元件可靠度的降低对后续维修产生的影响。文中以序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法为基础,对更贴合实际工程的MMC系统结构进行可靠性定量评估,考虑预防性维修策略和桥臂冗余策略的影响,提出考虑预防性维修的MMC系统级的模拟法可靠性建模方法,并得到多种系统级可靠性指标。在此基础上,提出最优维修周期的确定方法,该方法分别以成本和停机时间为优化目标,考虑两种不同更换策略(成批更换策略和年龄更换策略)。最后,通过实例确定不同冗余度的MMC系统级可靠性水平及最优维修周期。
Reliability Analysis and Maintenance Optimization of MMC System Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Method
Existing research on the reliability analysis of modular multilevel converters(MMC)considering maintenance is constrained by the complex structure of the system.Typically,due to this complexity,the model of the MMC system is simplified,making it difficult to directly establish a system-level reliability model.Consequently,these simplified models can only provide the reliability of system.In the context of considering preventive maintenance,current studies often presume that system repairs restore components to their original,new reliability levels,while overlooking the consequences of diminished reliability in unreplaced components on future maintenance efforts.Based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation,this paper conducts quantitative reliability assessment of the MMC system,which closely resembles practical engineering scenarios.The influence of preventive maintenance strategy and bridge arm redundancy strategy is considered.A system-level simulation-based reliability modeling method for MMC,considering preventive maintenance,is proposed.Various system-level reliability metrics are obtained through this approach.Building upon this foundation,a method for determining the optimal maintenance interval is presented,which is developed with cost and downtime as optimization objectives,and the optimal maintenance periods for different replacement strategies(block replacement strategy and age replacement strategy)are determined by exhaustively searching for the corresponding optimization objectives.Finally,the system-level reliability levels and optimal maintenance periods for MMC systems with different redundancy are determined through practical examples.

sequential Monte Carlo simulationreliability modelingperiodic maintenancemodular multilevel converter(MMC)

郝加兴、郝全睿、丁磊

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电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学),山东省 济南市 250061

序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法 可靠性建模 定期维修 模块化多电平换流器

2024

中国电机工程学报
中国电机工程学会

中国电机工程学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.712
ISSN:0258-8013
年,卷(期):2024.44(24)