Population Prevalence Estimation and Risk Factors Exploration of Pullorum Disease on Black-bone Chicken Farms in Lueyang County of Shaanxi Province
In order to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of pullorum disease(PD)on black-bone chicken farms in Lueyang County,Shaanxi Province,the population prevalence of the disease was investigated on intensive farms across the county from May to November 2021,and a prediction model of the disease was established to analyze possible risk factors.The results showed that the apparent population prevalence and the true one were 65.9%and 64.2%(95%CI:49.5%-78.9%),respectively.The main risk factors for PD occurrence included"visitors entered"(OR = 15.435,(95%CI:2.187-108.927),P＜0.05)and"antibiotics applied all year round"(OR = 12.078,(95%CI:1.397-104.434),P＜0.05);Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test showed that,P value was above 0.05,the lower area of ROC curve was 0.82(95%CI:0.69-0.95),and the R-squared of the prediction model was good with fair predictive performance.In conclusion,the population prevalence of PD in chicken farms in Lueyang County was relatively high with high-risk factors.It was thus recommended to strictly make efforts on production management and bio-safety prevention and control,improve bio-safety awareness of operators,and to prevent or treat the disease using appropriate antimicrobial drugs according to the characteristics of infection on the infected farm.
PDpopulation prevalencerisk factorShaanxi Province
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
