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中国地质灾害气象风险预警20年:2003-2022

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地质灾害气象风险预警业务自2003年启动以来,对我国地质灾害防灾减灾起到了重要支撑作用.文章全面总结了预警工作20年的发展历程、预警技术方法和防灾减灾成效.(1)将预警工作历程分为启动推进(2003-2009年)、深化合作(2010-2017年)和改革提升(2018-2022年)三个阶段.(2)以24h预警业务为主体,逐步形成了预测预报预警的递进式预警模式和较完善的预警业务系统.(3)逐步形成包括临界降水阈值模型、基于地质灾害危险性的阈值模型和动力预警模型等3套预警模型技术方法体系,2023年发布行业标准.(4)预警产品时空精度不断提高,国家级和26个省级预警空间精度高于5 kmx5 km,以24 h预警为主,向72 h、中长期预测等尺度发展;超过8个省级和部分市县级开展了 3 h短临预警,逐步形成支撑服务长期部署、中期防范和短临应对的业务体系.(5)有预警必有响应,2020年自然资源部将国家级预警作为启动防御响应的依据之一,18个省份在省级突发地质灾害应急预案中明确了预警响应联动工作机制.(6)多方联动防灾意识不断增强,收到预警信息后,加强巡查排查和组织人员撤离实现成功避险的案例不断增加,防灾减灾成效显著.20年来的预警工作总结,可为下一步推进地质灾害气象风险预警业务提供借鉴,支撑提升我国地质灾害防治工作能力和水平.
20-year early warning for regional geo-hazards risk in China:2003-2022
Early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors has played an important supportive role in disaster prevention and mitigation in China since its inception in 2003.This paper summarizes the the 20-year development process,technical methods,and disaster reduction effects of the early warning works.(1)The development process of early warning work process is divided into three stages:initiation and promotion(2003-2009),deepening cooperation(2010-2017),and reform and enhancement(2018-2022).(2)With 24-hour early warning work as the main content,a progressive warning model and a relatively complete warning service system have been gradually formed.(3)Three sets of early warning model technology and method systems have been gradually developed,including critical precipitation threshold model,the threshold model based on geo-hazards risk,and the dynamic early warning models,with the publication of industry standards for warning.(4)The spatial and temporal accuracy of warning products continues to improve,with the national and 26 provincial warning spatial accuracies exceeding 5 km x 5 km.The focus is on 24-hour warnings,with development towards 72-hour and medium-to long-term forecasts.Over 8 provincial-level and some municipal and county-level authorities have implemented 3-hour short-term warnings,gradually forming a work system to support service short impending warning response,medium-term prevention and long term deployment.(5)Where there is warning,there is response.The Ministry of Natural Resources has taken the national early warning as one of the bases for initiating defense responses,and 18 provinces have clarified the working mechanisms of the early warning response linkage.(6)The awareness of multi-party disaster prevention has been continuously enhanced.With strengthened inspections,evacuations,and successful risk aversion after receiving early warning information,the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation is evident.The experience of early warning works in the past 20-year can provide reference for the next step in promoting the early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors,supporting the enhancement of China's capability and level of geo-hazards prevention and control work.

geo-hazardswarning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factorsdevelopment processtechnical methodsmitigation effectiveness

肖锐铧、刘艳辉、陈春利、苏永超、王惠卿、徐为、方志伟、梁宏锟

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中国地质环境监测院(自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心),北京 100081

地质灾害 地质灾害气象风险预警 发展历程 技术方法 减灾成效

国家级地质环境监测与预报项目国家重点研发计划国家重点研发计划国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

102202220180000009060-12023YFC30072012023YFC30072052018YFC1505503420774404220721341202217

2024

10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202401028

中国地质灾害与防治学报
中国地质环境监测院

中国地质灾害与防治学报

CSTPCD
影响因子：1.096
ISSN：1003-8035
年,卷(期)：2024.35(2)
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