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我国房地产市场供求关系和未来发展趋势研究

Research on the supply and demand relationship and the future development trend of real estate market in China

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近年来,我国房地产市场发生了明显变化.从整体看,我国已告别住房"短缺"时代,并随着人口总量减少和人口老龄化、少子化的到来,城镇房地产市场出现需求增长减缓、供给总体过剩、区域市场发展不平衡、行业风险集中爆发等特征.为落实中央经济工作会议精神,当前我们不仅要开展短期逆周期调节,消除多年来"高负债、高杠杆、高周转"发展模式弊端,还要深入研判房地产市场供求关系和城镇化格局等重大趋势性、结构性变化,抓紧研究中长期治本之策,加快构建房地产新发展模式,继续发挥房地产业对我国经济社会发展的重要作用.本文在研究当前房地产市场发展环境、房地产市场供需特征基础上,深入分析了影响我国房地产市场长期发展的主要因素,并对我国房地产业未来发展趋势进行研判,提出"大力发展以大城市为中心的房地产市场,充分释放经济增长空间布局红利"的未来发展观点,以及推动制度改革、构建行业发展新模式的相关建议.
In recent years,China's real estate market has undergone obvious changes.On the whole,China has bid farewell to the era of housing"shortage",and with the decrease of the total population and the aging of population,fewer children,the urban real estate market is characterized by slowing demand growth,overall excess supply,unbalanced development of regional market,and concentrated outbreak of industrial risks.In order to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference,we should not only carry out short-term counter-cyclical adjustment to eliminate the disadvantages of the"high debt,high leverage and high turnover"development model over the years,but also thoroughly evaluate the major trend and structural changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the urbanization pattern,promptly study medium-and long-term solutions,accelerate the establishment of a new real estate development model,and continue to give full play to the important role of the real estate industry in China's economic and social development.Based on the study of the current real estate market development environment,the paper analyzes the main factors affecting the long-term development of the real estate market in China,and the future development trend of the real estate industry in our country.It puts forward the future development view of"vigorously developing the real estate market centered on big cities and fully releasing the dividend of economic growth space layout",as well as the relevant suggestions of promoting institutional reform and building a new model of industry development.

Real estate marketurbanizationhousing demandnew development model

王锋

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深圳市房地产和城市建设发展研究中心,邮政编码:518028

房地产市场 城镇化 住房需求 新发展模式

2024

中国房地产金融
中国房地产业协会 金融专业建设银行委员会

中国房地产金融

CHSSCD
ISSN:1006-7388
年,卷(期):2024.(2)