Based on micro land transaction data since March 2021,this paper regards the implementation of the centralized land supply policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses a fixed effects model and propensity score matching method to analyze the impact of the policy implementation on the land price premium rate and its transmission mechanism.The results indicate that:(1)The centralized land supply policy reduced the land price premium in the pilot cities to a certain extent,by about 2 percent on average,and is a counter-cyclical property control policy.(2)The centralized land supply policy affects the land price premium rate through real estate firms'expectations.(3)In terms of time effect,the land price stabilization effect is significant within two months after the implementation of the centralized land supply policy;in terms of spatial effect,the land price stabilization effect of the land parcels with the implementation of the centralized land supply policy is significantly more effective than that of the surrounding area within the range of 100～375km.(4)In terms of city scale,the policy effect in second-tier cities is stronger than that in first-tier cities.The heat of land bidding in various cities has diverged.The land market in core first and second-tier cities is hotter,and the policy effect in unpopular cities is stronger than that in popular cities.In conclusion,the centralized land supply policy,which has the function of reducing the premium rate of land prices,is a regulatory policy that goes against the real estate cycle and should be used opportunistically.
Centralized land supply policyland price stabilizationmarket expectations
维普
万方数据
