上海市2004-2013年出生性别比变化及影响因素分析
Variation tendency and influence factors of sex ratio at birth in Shanghai,2004-2013
虞慧婷 1蔡任之 1钱耐思 1韩明 1靳文正 1王春芳1
作者信息
- 1. 上海市疾病预防控制中心生命统计科,200336
- 折叠
摘要
目的 了解上海市出生人口性别比特征及其变化趋势,并探索出生性别的影响因素,为人口和计划生育工作提供数据支持.方法 收集2004-2013年上海市出生监测数据,描述出生人口性别比变化趋势,运用经济学贡献率的概念,计算不同因素对出生性别比升高的贡献,应用多因素logistic回归模型,分析出生人口性别比的影响因素.结果 2004-2013年上海市外来人口出生性别比从125降低到117,预测至2025年能达到正常水平.上海市出生性别比的升高主要由外来人口引起;产次的增加(OR2v;1=1.19,OR3vs1=1.67,OR＞3vs1=1.61)、母亲学历低(OR=1.01)是出生性别比升高的影响因素;父母生育年龄的升高将使得出生性别比降低(OR父=OR母=0.99).结论 上海市外来人口出生性别比偏高,母亲文化程度较低,父母的性别偏好观念对出生性别比有影响.
Abstract
Objective To explore variation tendency and influence factors of sex ratio at birth in Shanghai and to provide basic data for family planning.Methods Birth registry data from 2004 to 2013 in Shanghai municipality were collected and the characteristics of sex ratio at birth was described.With contribution rate in economics,we calculated contributions of various factors to the increase of sex ratio at birth.Multivariate logistic regression model was adopted to evaluate influence factors of sex ratio at birth.Results Sex ratio at birth for immigrant population in Shanghai reduced from 125 in 2004 to 117 in 2013 and was expected to reach to the normal level in 2025.The increased sex ratio at birth was mainly due to the immigrant populations.The increase of parity (odds ratio[OR]2vs.1 =1.19,OR3vs.1 =1.67,OR＞3vs.1 =1.61)and low education level of the mother (OR =1.01)were influencing factors of the increased sex ratio at birth.The elder age of the parents may related to the decreased sex ratio at birth (ORfather =0.99 and ORmother =0.99).Conclusion Immigrant population in Shanghai showed a high sex ratio at birth.Low education level of mother and gender preference of parents have influence on sex ratio at birth.
关键词
出生人口性别比/贡献率/外来入口/产次/生育年龄Key words
sex ratio at birth/contribution rate/immigrant population/parity/childbearing age引用本文复制引用
基金项目
上海市卫生局科研课题(20124383)
上海市卫生局青年科研课题(20124y174)
上海市卫生和计划生育委员会科技发展基金(2013JG12)
出版年
2016
NETL
NSTL
万方数据