基于GM模型和泰尔指数的辽宁省卫生技术人员发展预测和配置分析
Development prediction and allocation analysis of health technicians in Liaoning Province based on GM model and Theil index
王佳怡 1杨敬宇1
作者信息
- 1. 甘肃中医药大学,甘肃兰州 730000
- 折叠
摘要
目的 探析辽宁省2016-2021年卫生技术人员配置现状及其公平性,为辽宁省卫生人力的优化配置提供科学依据.方法 基于GM(1,1)模型和泰尔指数进行卫生技术人员发展预测和配置分析.结果 2016和2021年辽宁省医护比分别为1∶1.09和1∶1.15;均低于全国同期平均水平;辽宁省2025年每千人口执业(助理)医师数预计为3.60人,低于规划目标.6年间辽宁省总体泰尔指数在0.03～0.05之间,组间贡献率大约在70％,辽中和辽南区域的组内差异较大,辽西和辽东区域差异相对较小.结论 辽宁省卫生技术人员配置在数量、结构、分布上存在不均衡现象.
Abstract
Objective To explore the current situation of health technicians allocation and its fairness in Liaoning Province from 2016 to 2021,and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing health manpower allocation in Liaoning Province.Methods Basing on GM(1,1)model and Terrell index,development prediction and allocation analysis were conducted on health technicians.Results The ratio of doctor and nurse in Liaoning province in 2016 and 2021 was 1∶1.09 and 1∶1.15,respectively;both were lower than the national average for the same period;the number of practicing(assistant)physicians per thousand population in Liaoning Province in 2025 was expected to be 3.60,which was lower than the planning target.The overall Theil index of Liaoning province during the 6-year period ranged from 0.03 to 0.05,with an intergroup contribution rate of approximately 70％,with large differences in the central and southern regions of Liaoning,and relatively small differences in the western and eastern regions of Liaoning.Conclusion There are imbalances in the number,structure,and distribution of health technicians staffing in Liaoning Province.
关键词
卫生技术人员/GM(1,1)模型/泰尔指数/辽宁Key words
health technicians/GM(1,1)model/Theil index/Liaoning引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据