摘要
目的 探究"三孩"政策下大湾区居民的生育意愿及其影响因素,以提供实证证据.方法 采用问卷调查的方法采集大湾区9市41个社区2 735名居民的生育意愿数据;采用x2检验、有序logistic回归对大湾区育龄群众的生育意愿及其影响因素进行分析.结果 大湾区居民生育子女0个、1个、2个、≥3个的人数分别为902人、747人、880人、206人,分别占32.98％、27.31％、32.18％、7.53％.年龄、在婚、男性、大专、体力劳动、家庭年收入＞30万元、社会阶层、幸福程度等是影响居民生育意愿的因素.结论 大湾区不同特征的居民生育意愿不同,年龄在＜25岁、35～＜40岁的居民生育意愿高且有多孩生育意愿.根据不同人群的需求提倡适龄婚育、促进积极的就业政策使居民有更高的可支配收入、增强居民对城市的认同感、促进美满的婚姻等,可提高其生育意愿.
Abstract
Objective To explore the fertility intentions and influencing factors of residents in the Greater Bay Area under the"three-child"policy,in order to provide empirical evidence.Methods A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data on fertility intentions from 2 735 residents across 41 communities in 9 cities of the Greater Bay Area;Chi-square tests and ordered logistic regression were used to analyze the fertility intentions and their influencing factors among the reproductive-age population in the Greater Bay Area.Results The number of residents in the Greater Bay Area who had 0,1,2,and ≥3 children are 902,747,880,and 206,respectively,accounting for 32.98％,27.31％,32.18％,and 7.53％.Age,married,male,college degree,engaged in physical labor,family annual income＞300 000 yuan and social class,and happiness level were factors that affect residents'fertility intentions.Conclusion Fertility intentions vary among different groups of residents in the Greater Bay Area,with high fertility intentions observed among residents under 25 years old and those between 35 and under 40 years old,including the intention to have multiple children.In order to enhance fertility intentions,it is advocated to promote marriage at the appropriate age,implement positive employment policies,increase residents'disposable income,strengthen residents'identification with the city,and promote fulfilling marriages among other measures.
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