宏观因素对肺结核疫情影响的空间差异分析
Spatial difference analysis of the influence of macroscopic factors on tuberculosis epidemic situation
郑良芳 1曾德斌1
作者信息
- 1. 塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔 843300
- 折叠
摘要
目的 探究2016年31个省份肺结核的空间分布特征,为肺结核防治工作的开展提供依据.方法 从宏观因素(经济水平、医疗卫生水平、社会保障水平和交通水平)的角度分析其对肺结核患病统计人数的空间影响.建立贝叶斯分层泊松回归模型,并利用Bayesian-INLA算法估计模型参数.结果 经济水平和交通水平与肺结核患病统计人数呈负相关,医疗卫生水平与肺结核患病统计人数呈正相关,而社会保障水平对肺结核患病统计人数既有积极影响也有消极影响.具体而言,经济水平对我国中部地区的影响强于北部和南部地区,医疗卫生水平对东北、西南及新疆等地的影响较大,社会保障水平影响大致与肺结核发病趋势一致,交通水平的影响主要集中在东部地区,对肺结核患病统计人数的影响大致呈现出从东到西的递减趋势.结论 肺结核发病呈现明显的地域分布特征,各省份应针对其地域特点开展进一步研究,并根据其实际情况制定相应的防控措施.
Abstract
Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of tuberculosis in 31 provinces in 2016,and provide evidence for the development of tuberculosis prevention and treatment.Methods Considering the spatial impact of macroscopic factors(economic level,medical and health level,social security level and traffic level)on the epidemic situation of tuberculosis,a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model was established and the Bayesian-INLA algorithm was used to estimate the model parameters.Results The economic level and traffic level were negatively correlated with the number of people with tuberculosis.The medical and health level was positively correlated with the number of people with tuberculosis.The influence of social security level on the epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis was positive and negative.Among them,the economic level had a stronger impact on the central region than the northern and southern regions.The level of health care had a greater impact on the northeast,southwest,and Xinjiang.The impact of social security level was roughly consistent with the trend of tuberculosis,and the traffic level was mainly concentrated in the eastern region.The impact on the number of people with tuberculosis was roughly decreasing from east to west.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis has obvious geographical distribution,and each province should further study its geographical characteristics and formulate corresponding prevention and control measures according to its actual situation.
关键词
肺结核/宏观因素/贝叶斯分层泊松回归模型/空间异质性Key words
tuberculosis/macroscopic factors/Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model/spatial heterogeneity引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据