Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of hepatitis B in Zhangjiagang City,2013-2022
Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis B in Zhangjiagang from 2013 to 2022,predict the incidence trend,and improve the prevention and control strategy.Methods The data of reported cases of hepatitis B in surveillance points in Zhangjiagang was analyzed by descriptive epidemiology and statistical test.The incidence trend was predicted by constructing ARIMA models.Results From 2013 to 2022,a total of 1 665 cases of hepatitis B were reported,with annual average incidence of 10.21/100 000.The cases were mainly chronic and had no obvious seasonal characteristics(M=0.011-0.187),total M=0.060.The development trend of spatial distribution showed two stages,from 2013 to 2018,the incidence mainly concentrated in Leyu Town and Daxin Town in the northeastern and northern regions of the city.From 2019 to 2022,the incidence gradually expanded to the northwest regions,including Jinfeng Town and Free Trade Zone.The cases were mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest regions,Yangshe Town(443 cases)and Free Trade Zone(330 cases).Most of the cases were male(12.78/100 000,66.01％)and farmers(45.83％)aged 50-59(16.86/100 000).The incidence rate under 19 years old was the lowest(0.60/100 000).Forecast range of monthly incidence of hepatitis B in 2023 was 12.15/100 000-35.36/100 000.Conclusion The overall incidence of hepatitis B in Zhangjiagang City was not high,showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and some regions became new incidence areas.It is predicted that hepatitis B will still be at a high incidence level in 2023.It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis B among key populations,continue to promote the vaccination of hepatitis B,and achieve the goal of eliminating the prevalence of hepatitis B.
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