Research on prediction of natural gas consumption in China under dual carbon constraints
Natural gas is widely regarded as a clean energy source,mainly due to its low levels of pollutants generated during combustion.Before achieving carbon peak,natural gas will play an important transitional role.However,its cleanliness is not absolute,and the production,transportation,and storage processes of natural gas also generate certain carbon emissions.By predicting the consumption of natural gas,it is possible to better understand and manage the supply and demand of natural gas resources.Therefore,this article uses the LMDI factor decomposition method to construct a natural gas demand system dynamics model.By predicting the future natural gas consumption under dual carbon constraints,it is found that in both the baseline scenario and the rapid transformation scenario,natural gas consumption shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.In the slow transformation scenario,natural gas consumption shows an increasing trend,and the growth tends to be flat after 2060.
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