An analysis of the causes and forecast bias of a continuous heavy rainfall process in Chamdo
From July 11 to 17,2023,the city experienced widespread and continuous heavy rainfall,leading to geological disasters such as mudslides,flash floods,landslides,and road collapses in areas such as Chayag,Markam,Dingqen,Zo'gang,Baxoi,and Riwoqe. In this paper,the continuous heavy rainfall is analyzed by using the conventional observation data at high altitude and on the ground,as well as the numerical model and wind profile radar data. The results show that the vortex shear line formed between the Iranian high and the western Pacific subtropical high is the main influence system causing the continuous heavy rainfall. The establishment of high pressure cells near Qinghai in the north of Tibet and Yunnan in the south (22°-27°N,94°-97°E) has certain indication significance for predicting the continuous heavy rainfall process.
continuous heavy rainfallvortex shear linehigh pressurenumerical modelforecast deviation analysis
万方数据
