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中国省域交通碳排放空间关联格局的驱动特征

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利用我国2003~2020年省级交通碳排放数据,基于模体结构分析和指数随机图模型对中国交通碳排放空间关联网络的宏观格局、微观连通和驱动特征进行研究。结果表明,中国交通碳排放空间关联网络呈现周期波动特征,等级均衡化发展和核心虹吸的空间分布,演化出少核心—多半核心—边缘新格局,碳转移路径表现出明显的空间惰性与时间惯性以及区域集中性;经纪属性在推动跨区域交通协同减排的经济活动中发挥重要作用;内生网络的互惠性、连通性、集聚性对交通碳排放网络形成具有重要驱动作用,行为者属性中发出、接收、抑制、互惠的驱动关系明显,外部网络的影响具有明显的地理邻近效应,呈现出地理距离衰减规律特征。由此提出短期重大项目驱动,推动绿色交通转型联动;中期提升协同水平,加强跨区域交通碳减排协调机制;长期顶层零碳设计,工业化-产业化-市场化全面协同等政策建议。
Driving characteristics of the spatial correlation pattern of carbon emissions from provincial transportation in China
Based on the provincial transportation carbon emission data from 2003 to 2020,the macro pattern,micro connectivity and driving characteristics of China's transportation carbon emission spatial correlation network were studied based on the modular structure analysis and the exponential random graph model.The spatial correlation network of China's transport carbon emissions presents periodic fluctuation characteristics,and the spatial distribution of hierarchical equilibrium development and core siphon has evolved into a new pattern with few core-mostly core-edge can be derived from results.Obvious spatial inertia,time inertia and regional concentration were shown in the carbon transfer path shows.In promoting the economic activities of trans-regional transportation collaborative emission reduction,brokerage attributes was instrumental.Reciprocity,connectivity and agglomeration of endogenous networks played an important driving role in the formation of transport carbon emission networks,and the driving relationship between emission,reception,inhibition and reciprocity among the attributes of actors was obvious.The influence of external networks had an obvious geographical proximity effect,showing a regular feature of geographical distance attenuation.Therefore,policy suggestions such as major projects in the short term,promoting the linkage of green transportation transformation,upgrading the level of coordination in the medium term,strengthening the coordination mechanism of cross-regional transportation carbon emission reduction,long-term top-level zero carbon design,and comprehensive coordination of industrialization-industrialization-marketization were proposed.

transportation carbon emissionmodal structure analysisexponential random graph modeldriving factor

杨青、郭露、刘星星、赵坤强

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武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430070

交通碳排放 模体结构分析 指数随机图模型 驱动要素

国家自然科学基金

72374164

2024

中国环境科学
中国环境科学学会

中国环境科学

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.174
ISSN:1000-6923
年,卷(期):2024.44(2)
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