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城市居民生活碳排放及影响因素的时空异质性

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基于地图可视化、空间自相关、标准差椭圆和空间马尔科夫链探究中国2006~2020年城市居民生活碳排放的时空特征,并采用时空地理加权模型(GTWR)实证考察城市居民生活碳排放影响因素的时空异质性。结果显示:中国城市居民生活碳排放逐年增长,年均增长率为 10。12%,但增速逐渐放缓;呈现东高西低的空间差异特征,且在样本后期呈现逐渐收敛态势。城市居民生活碳排放水平的空间分布呈现显著的空间聚集特征;标准差椭圆呈现向心集聚的趋势,且分布重心逐渐向西南移动,累计迁移了 68。97km;居民生活碳排放的动态演进受到邻地城市碳排放水平的影响。各影响因素存在明显的时空异质性。时间趋势上,人口密度、经济发展、对外开放和产业结构在大部分城市促进碳排放,但影响力逐年减弱;技术投入和环境规制则降低碳排放,且影响力逐年增强;空间分布上,人口密度、经济发展和对外开放在南部的影响力更强,而技术投入、产业结构和环境规制的影响力在东部更强。
The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of carbon emission and its driving forces in urban households
This paper studied the spatial and temporal features of carbon emission in urban households in China between 2006 and 2020,using these methods including map visualization,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse and spatial Markov chain,and tested the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of driving forces using spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR).Carbon emission in urban households increased over years with a growth rate of 10.12%on average,however,the growth was gradually stopping,where it was higher in the east and lower in the west,and it converged when time approached the end of the sample period.The spatial distribution of carbon emission in urban households significantly showed a geographic concentration.The standard deviation ellipse tended to show a center agglomeration,and the core of the distribution shifted to the southwest for about 68.97km.The dynamics of the carbon emission in urban households was affected by the carbon emission of neighboring cities.The driving forces showed significant differences across geographic spaces and over time.Temporally,the impact of the driving forces,including population density,economic growth,opening up to the world,and sectoral structure,on carbon emission was positive but weakening over time,and the impact of technology and environmental regulations were negative and growing stronger over time.Spatially,the impact of population density,economic growth,and opening up to the world,were much stronger in the south,and the impact of technology,sectoral structure,and environmental regulation were much stronger in the east.

citycarbon emission in urban householdsdriving forcesspatial and temporal heterogeneity

许嘉俊、杨晓军、李睿

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武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北 武汉 430072

中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北 武汉 430073

城市 居民生活碳排放 影响因素 时空异质性

国家社会科学基金资助项目

23BGL222

2024

中国环境科学
中国环境科学学会

中国环境科学

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.174
ISSN:1000-6923
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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