摘要
设计成渝地区3种中长期综合减污降碳情景,包括基准政策情景、动态优化情景和最大潜力情景.应用区域大气污染物及碳排放清单和空气质量模型,模拟预测不同情景下的空气质量改善程度,并优选中长期空气质量改善目标约束下的综合减污降碳情景及路径.结果显示,成渝地区要实现中长期空气质量改善和碳减排目标,与2017基准年相比,2025年和2035年的SO2、NOx、PM2.5、VOCs和CO2减排比例分别为29%、32%、19%、24%、3%和 35%、49%、28%、39%、12%.从综合减污降碳措施减排贡献来看,近中期阶段,末端治理(尤其是重点行业超低排放改造)仍是大气污染物减排的重要驱动力,大气污染物减排贡献占比为20%～55%.中长期阶段,由"双碳"目标驱动的能源、产业和交通结构调整措施对污染减排具有关键作用,大气污染物减排贡献占比为65%～87%.此外,重点排放源减排贡献具有较大差异,移动源和溶剂使用源对NOx和VOCs减排贡献显著,固定燃烧源、工艺过程源和移动源对CO2减排贡献均较为明显.
Abstract
The three medium-to long-term comprehensive scenarios for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in the Cheng-Yu district were formulated,encompassing the baseline policy,dynamic optimization,and maximum potential scenarios.Regional air pollution and carbon emission inventories,along with an air quality model,were applied to simulate the extent of air quality improvement under different scenarios.Subsequently,pollution reduction and carbon mitigation pathways were optimized,taking into account long-term air quality improvement goals.The results revealed that,to achieve medium-to long-term improvements in air quality and carbon emission reduction goals,compared to the baseline year of 2017,the reduction percentages of SO2,NOx,PM2.5,VOCs,and CO2 in the years 2025 and 2035 were 29%,32%,19%,24%,3%,and 35%,49%,28%,39%,12%,respectively.In the near to medium term,end-of-pipe treatments(especially ultra-low emission transformations in key industries)remain the primary driving force for reducing air pollutants,accounting for approximately 20%～55%of the overall reduction.In the medium to long term,measures related to energy,industry,and transportation structure adjustments driven by the"dual carbon"goals play a crucial role in pollution reduction,accounting for approximately 65%～87%of the overall reduction.Furthermore,significant differences are observed in the emission reduction contributions from key emission sources.Mobile sources and solvent use sources make significant contributions to the reduction of NOx and VOCs,while stationary combustion sources,process sources,and mobile sources all have noticeable contributions to CO2 emission reductions.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0214005)
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项项目(CSTB2022TIAD-CUX0010)
重庆市科研机构绩效激励引导专项项目(2023JXJL-YFX0085)
维普
万方数据