首页|基于KZ滤波分析气象对珠三角臭氧趋势的影响

基于KZ滤波分析气象对珠三角臭氧趋势的影响

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基于2015~2021年珠三角臭氧(O3)监测数据以及再分析的气象资料,利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波和逐步多元线性回归方法分析O3长期趋势和气象因素之间的关系,量化气象和非气象对珠三角O3日最大8h平均浓度(MDA8O3)长期趋势的贡献。结果表明:2015~2021年珠三角MDA8O3增长明显,夏季和秋季O3污染尤为严重。KZ滤波分离出的MDA8O3短期、季节和长期3个分量分别占原始序列方差的60。84%、24。96%和4。33%,各分量之间相互独立,3个分量均与太阳辐射、温度和边界层高度呈正相关,与云量、相对湿度、风速和850hPa经向风呈负相关。此外,气象和非气象影响能分别解释大约 64。3%(2。77 μg/(m3·a))和 35。7%(1。53 μg/(m3·a))的 MDA8O3 长期趋势的增长率(4。29 μg/(m3·a))。
Analysis of meteorological effects on the trend of ozone in the Pearl River Delta using the KZ filtering method
Based on the ozone(O3)monitoring data and reanalysis meteorological data in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)from 2015 to 2021,the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)filter and stepwise multiple linear regression method were used to analyze the relationship between the long-term trend of O3 and meteorological factors.This study quantified the contribution of meteorological and non-meteorological factors to the long-term trend of the maximum daily 8-hour average O3 concentration(MDA8O3)in the PRD.The results indicated a significant increase in MDA8O3 in the PRD from 2015 to 2021,with particularly severe O3 pollution in the summer and autumn.The KZ fitering method separated MDA8O3 into three components:short-term,seasonal and long-term,accounting for 60.84%,24.96%and 4.33%of the variance of the original sequence,respectively.These components were found to be independent of each other.The three components of MDA8O3 are positively correlated with solar radiation,temperature and boundary layer height,and negatively correlated with cloud cover,relative humidity,wind speed and 850hPa meridional wind.Furthermore,meteorological and non-meteorological influences were found to explain approximately 64.3%(2.77μg/(m3a))and 35.7%(1.53μg/(m3a))of the long-term trend's growth rate(4.29μg/(m3a))of MDA8O3,respectively.

Pearl River Delta(PRD)KZ filterozonemeteorology

邬双双、陈梓超、薛鑫、吴燕星、董俊杰、刘润

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暨南大学环境与气候研究院,广东广州 511443

粤港环境质量协同创新联合实验室,广东广州 511443

珠三角 KZ滤波 臭氧 气象

国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目

9164422292044302

2024

中国环境科学
中国环境科学学会

中国环境科学

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.174
ISSN:1000-6923
年,卷(期):2024.44(4)
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