Research on carbon dioxide emission characteristics and emission reduction path of China's iron and steel industry based on ARIMA-LEAP model
To have removed any subjective bias in forecasting future production levels of crude steel,steel,and pig iron,the past study employed the ARIMA model in time series analysis to provide an objective outlook on production volumes.Specifically,it had developed the ARIMA-LEAP model tailored for the Chinese steel industry,using 2020 as the benchmark year and examining production estimates at 5-year intervals from 2020 to 2030.The research delved into the CO2 emissions throughout the entire steel production process,considering various scenarios.By incorporating advancements such as hydrogen reduction ironmaking technology and adapting energy structures,including shifts in electricity generation methods,the study had established four individual scenarios and four combined scenarios,which were then evaluated for their potential impact on emission reductions.The results showed that the CO2 emission reduction potential of the four combined scenarios with scale emission reduction had been higher than that of the single scenario.Among them,SUR+TER,SUR+STR and comprehensive emission reduction scenarios can be reached in 2030,and the peak years are all 2021,and the CO2 emissions at the peak time are 1322.5Mt,1335.9Mt and 1328.9Mt,respectively.In comparison to the baseline scenario,the CO2 emission reduction in a single scenario,from the highest to the lowest,was as follows:In 2030,the emission reductions in the scale(SUR),structural(STR),and technical(TAR)scenarios,relative to the base scenario,were found to be 493.1Mt,247.8Mt,and 105.1Mt,respectively.Utilizing the LEAP model's energy accounting and CO2 emission accounting functions,the CO2 emissions of different processes and different energy sources from 2020 to 2030 under the comprehensive emission reduction scenario were studied.Among them,the three processes with the highest CO2 emissions were the iron making,steel rolling,and sintering processes,while the four energy sources with the highest CO2 emissions were washed coal,pulverized coal injection,electric power,and coke.Notably,the CO2 emission of washed coal reached the 10Bt level,while the other three energy sources also reached the Bt level.This study had identified the CO2 emissions characteristics of the Chinese steel industry and conducted a simple comparison of the costs for technical emission reduction and structural emission reduction,subsequently formulating a path for CO2 emission reduction in the Chinese steel industry.
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