黑龙江省能源碳排放核算及驱动因素分析
Accounting and driving factors analysis of energy carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province
刘浩东 1邱微 1陈爽1
作者信息
- 1. 哈尔滨工业大学环境学院,城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150090
- 折叠
摘要
基于联合国政府间气候变化委员会的方法,核算了黑龙江省2005～2020年能源消费的碳排放,借助LMDI分解模型、STIRPAT模型深入剖析了能源碳排放与经济、人口等驱动因素的关系,并进行情景模拟,探寻黑龙江省未来发展的合理途径.根据 LMDI 因素分解结果,各驱动因素对能源碳排放的累计效应中经济水平效应最大;由STIRPAT模型以及情景模拟分析可得,四种情境中综合情景为最优情景.最后,根据"双碳"目标以及研究结果,对相关的调控策略给出建议.
Abstract
Based on the method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,it calculated the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to 2020.By using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)decomposition model and the STIRPAT model,it analyzed the relationship between energy carbon emissions and driving factors such as the economy and population in depth.Scenario simulations were conducted to explore reasonable paths for the future development of Heilongjiang Province.According to the results of the LMDI factor decomposition,the economic level factor had the greatest cumulative effect on energy carbon emissions.Through the STIRPAT model and scenario simulation analysis,the comprehensive scenario was identified as the optimal scenario among the four scenarios.Finally,based on the"dual carbon"goal and research results,it provided the suggestions for relevant regulatory strategies.
关键词
碳排放/能源消费/因素分解/情景模拟Key words
carbon emission/energy consumption/factor decomposition/scenario simulation引用本文复制引用
基金项目
城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室(哈尔滨工业大学环境学院)自主课题(2022TS15)
黑龙江省生态环境保护科研项目(HST2022ST006)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据