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中国省际农作物生产碳公平及其驱动因素

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在采用生命周期评价法测算2006~2021年全国及31个省份农作物生产碳排放量的基础上,从碳汇角度构建农作物生产碳公平系数,利用XGBoost模型识别碳公平的关键驱动因素及其非线性响应关系。结果表明,考察期内,全国农作物生产碳公平整体趋于降低,碳公平系数由1。025下降至0。944。全国农作物生产碳公平的区域差异性显著,整体表现为"粮食主产区>产销平衡区>粮食主销区"。碳公平程度总体呈由西北向东南递减,并存在高值聚集与低值聚集减弱的趋势。除农田灌溉条件、城乡收入差距、科技创新水平因素外,其他驱动因素对碳公平的影响具有复杂的非线性特征。从时间效应来看,农业生产结构是影响碳公平的最重要因素,农田灌溉条件、粮食单产因素的重要性始终排名靠前;从区域效应来看,农业生产结构因素排名靠前,其他驱动因素的重要性存在一定的差异。
Carbon fairness in inter provincial crop production and its driving factors in China
On the basis of using the life cycle assessment method to calculate the carbon emissions of crop production in China and 31 provinces from 2006 to 2021,the carbon faimess coefficient of crop production was constructed from the perspective of carbon sink.The XGBoost model was used to identify the key driving factors of carbon faimess and their nonlinear response relationships.The results showed that during the inspection period,the overall carbon faimess of crop production in China tended to decrease,with the carbon faimess coefficient decreasing from 1.025 to 0.944.The regional differences in carbon faimess of crop production in China were significant,with the overall performance being"main grain production area>the production and sales balance area>main grain sales area".The overall degree of carbon faimess was decreasing from northwest to southeast,and there was a trend of weakening high-value aggregation and low-value aggregation.Except for factors such as farmland irrigation conditions,urban-rural income gap,and technological innovation level,other driving factors had complex nonlinear characteristics in their impact on carbon faimess.From the perspective of time effects,agricultural production structure was the most important factor affecting carbon faimess,and the importance of farmland irrigation conditions and grain yield per hectare factors always ranked high.From the perspective of regional effects,agricultural production structure factor ranked high,and there were certain differences in the importance of other driving factors.

crop productioncarbon faimessdriving factorsXGBoost model

汤李琛、曾贤刚、陈慧、李洁、陈宓、张仲元

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中国人民大学生态环境学院,北京 100872

湖北大学商学院,湖北 武汉 430062

中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京 100872

中国人民大学经济学院,北京 100872

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农作物生产 碳公平 驱动因素 XGBoost模型

2024

中国环境科学
中国环境科学学会

中国环境科学

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.174
ISSN:1000-6923
年,卷(期):2024.44(12)