Objective The management of pulmonary nodules is a common clinical problem,and this study constructed a nomogram model based on FUT7 methylation combined with CT imaging features to predict the risk of adenocarcinoma in patients with pulmonary nodules.Methods The clinical data of 219 patients with pulmonary nodules diagnosed by histopathology at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 2021 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.The FUT7 methylation level in peripheral blood were detected,and the patients were randomly divided into training set(n=154)and validation set(n=65)according to proportion of 7:3.They were divided into a lung adenocarcinoma group and a benign nodule group according to pathological results.Single-factor analysis and multi-factor logistic regression analysis were used to construct a prediction model in the training set and verified in the validation set.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the discrimination of the model,the calibration curve was used to evaluate the consistency of the model,and the clinical decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model.The applicability of the model was further evaluated in the subgroup of high-risk CT signs(located in the upper lobe,vascular sign,and pleural sign).Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female,age,FUT7_CpG_4,FUT7_CpG_6,sub-solid nodules,lobular sign and burr sign were independent risk factors for lung adenocarcinoma(P＜0.05).A column-line graph prediction model was constructed based on the results of the multifactorial analysis,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.925(95％CI 0.877-0.972),and the maximum approximate entry index corresponded to a critical value of 0.562,at which time the sensitivity was 89.25％,the specificity was 86.89％,the positive predictive value was 91.21％,and the negative predictive value was 84.13％.The calibration plot predicted the risk of adenocarcinoma of pulmonary nodules was highly consistent with the risk of actual occurrence.The DCA curve showed a good clinical net benefit value when the threshold probability of the model was 0.02-0.80,which showed a good clinical net benefit value.In the upper lobe,vascular sign and pleural sign groups,the area under the ROC curve was 0.903(95％CI 0.847-0.959),0.897(95％CI 0.848-0.945),and 0.894(95％CI 0.831-0.956).Conclusions This study developed a nomogram model to predict the risk of lung adenocarcinoma in patients with pulmonary nodules.The nomogram has high predictive performance and clinical application value,and can provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and subsequent clinical management of pulmonary nodules.
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