A Theoretical Interpretation of the Evolution Logic of the Philippines'South China Sea Policy——On the Marcos Government's South China Sea Policy and Its Evolution
In the context of the heated game between China and the United States in the South China Sea,clarifying the evolution logic of the Philippine South China Sea policy has become an issue of both theoretical and practical significance.Based on the revision of neoclassical realism,taking sea power situation between U.S.-Philippine alliance and China as a prior variable,and Philippines'na-tional policymakers'assessments of the security situation in the South China Sea and the Philippines'abilities to obtain U.S.strategic assistance as a unit-level independent variable,the paper aims to con-struct a cross-level analysis framework that can analyze the evolution logic of the Philippines'South China Sea policy.The Aquino and Duterte governments'South China Sea policy are taken as cases to test this theoretical framework.On the basis of the theoretical model,the paper predicts that the Marcos government's South China Sea policy has a greater risk of evolving into a radical type.China's policymakers can respond with two risk-prevention measures.
neoclassical realism theorythe Philippines'South China Sea policyU.S.-Philippine alliancethe South China Sea disputes between China and the PhilippinesMarcos government
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