Investigation and analysis of prognosis of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma and construction of Nomogram predictive model
Objective To explore the prognosis of senile fracture patients complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma,investigate and analyze its risk factors,and build a Nomogram predictive model.Methods The clinical data of 98 elderly fracture patients treated in our hospital from January 2021 to January 2023 were included.The elderly fracture patients complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma were classified as the observation group and those without acute cerebrovascular trauma as the control group.The baseline data and laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared,and the independent influencing factors of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma were determined by Logistic regression analysis.The obtained independent influencing factors were incorporated into the construction of Nomogram predictive model,and the effectiveness of Nomogram model for the risk of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma was evaluated by C index,receiver's working characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve in R software.Results There was no difference in sex,age,body mass index(BMI),fracture time,hypertension,smoking history and drinking history between the two groups(P>0.05).The hyperglycemia in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group(P<0.05).There was no difference in systolic blood pressure,diastolic blood pressure,fasting blood glucose(FPG),total cholesterol(TC),red blood cell count(RBC),white blood cell count(WBC),triglyceride(TG),sodium ion,potassium ion,calcium ion and D-dimer between the two groups(P>0.05).The RBC in the observation group was lower than that in the control group,and the platelet,fibrinogen(FIB)and C-reactive protein(CRP)in the observation group were higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).Logistics regression analysis showed that RBC was an independent protective factor for elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma(OR<1,P<0.05).Hyperglycemia,platelet,FIB and CRP were independent risk factors of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma(all OR>1,all P<0.05).ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC of hyperglycemia,RBC,platelet,FIB and CRP were all above 0.700,which showed that the above indexes had good predictive value for the elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma.Based on the above factors,the Nomogram risk predictive model was established,and the calibration curve C-index value was 0.964,which showed that the Nomogram model had good discrimination,and the AUC values of ROC curve modeling group and verification group were 0.964 and 0.939,respectively,which showed that the Nomogram model had good predictive efficiency.Conclusion Nomogram predictive model based on the independent influencing factors of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma can directly predict the probability of elderly fracture complicated with acute cerebrovascular trauma.
Elderly fractureAcute cerebrovascular traumaInfluencing factorsNomogram predictive model
维普
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