Asymmetric Effect,Transmission Mechanism and Macro-policy Regulation of Economic Uncertainty
This paper uses high-dimensional macro datasets to construct China's macroeconomic uncertainty index,e-valuates the asymmetric effect of economic uncertainty on economic growth from business cycle perspective,and demon-strates the important role of financial friction mechanism through counterfactual analysis.This provides an important basis for understanding the asymmetric effect,transmission mechanism,and policy response methods of economic uncertainty shock.This paper draws three main conclusions:Firstly,the impact of economic uncertainty on output is asymmetric in the business cycle.During economic recession,economic uncertainty has a significant and persistent negative impact on the real GDP growth rate,while the impact of uncertainty shock during economic prosperity is not significant;Secondly,the finan-cial friction mechanism strengthens the negative impact of economic uncertainty on output.The increase in economic uncer-tainty drives up the external financing premium of enterprises,thereby affecting the growth of the real economy to a greater extent.However,the financial friction mechanism is only important during economic recession,and its impact is not signifi-cant during economic prosperity;Thirdly,the regulatory effects of fiscal and monetary policy during economic recession are significantly higher than those during economic prosperity.Expansionary fiscal and monetary policy can alleviate financial friction and effectively stabilize economic growth.The research conclusion of this paper indicates that stabilizing the finan-cial situation during economic recession is of great significance in alleviating the negative impact of uncertainty shocks.Ac-tive and proactive economic policy regulation can effectively respond to uncertainty shocks and suppress business cycle fluc-tuations.
business cycleeconomic uncertaintyfinancial frictionfiscal policymonetary policy
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
