黄河流域生态保护与农业现代化协调发展:特征成因与优化路径
Coordinated Development of Ecological Protection and Agricultural Modernization in the Yellow River Basin:Characteristics,Causes,and Optimization Pathways
吴振磊 1张瀚禹 2程旭翀2
作者信息
- 1. 西北大学中国西部经济发展研究院
- 2. 西北大学经济管理学院
- 折叠
摘要
本文从黄河流域生态保护与农业现代化耦合协调的现实逻辑出发,基于二者耦合协调机理,运用2012-2021年黄河流域9省区的有关数据进行量化分析.研究发现,黄河流域生态保护与农业现代化协调子系统综合水平呈现上升态势,农业现代化发展水平总体弱于生态保护水平,耦合协调度呈现"缓慢增长—平稳波动—稳定增长"的变化特征.黄河流域生态保护与农业现代化耦合协调发展的动力因素由强到弱依次是发展驱动、政府调控、禀赋推动.最后,本文运用灰度预测法进行分析,发现"十四五"期间耦合协调度将保持平稳上升趋势,但在"十四五"末仍未能达到高水平协调.
Abstract
This article starts from the practical logic of the coupling coordination between ecological protection and ag-ricultural modernization in the Yellow River basin,and based on the coupling coordination mechanism of the two,uses rele-vant data from 9 provinces and regions in the Yellow River basin from 2012 to 2021 for quantitative analysis.Research has found that the comprehensive level of the coordination subsystem between ecological protection and agricultural moderniza-tion in the Yellow River basin is showing an upward trend,and the overall level of agricultural modernization development is weaker than the level of ecological protection.The coupling coordination degree shows a changing characteristic of"slow growth,stable fluctuation,and stable growth".The driving force for the coordinated development of ecological protection and agricultural modernization in the Yellow River basin,from strong to weak,is driven by development,government regu-lation,and endowment.Finally,this article uses grayscale prediction method for analysis and finds that the coupling coordi-nation degree will maintain a stable upward trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,but still cannot reach a high level of coordination by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan.Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the two major sys-tems in the Yellow River basin,combined with analysis of obstacles and driving forces.
关键词
区域经济/高质量发展/生态环境/农业现代化/耦合协调Key words
regional economy/high quality development/ecological environment/agricultural modernization/cou-pled coordination引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2022D036)
西北大学优秀博士论文培育项目(YB2024002)
西北大学研究生创新项目(CX2024016)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据