Analysis of risk factors for adenovirus infection in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia and construction and validation of a normagram risk model
Objective To investigate the risk factors of adenovirus(ADV)infection in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP),and to establish an effective normagram risk model for predicting ADV infection in MPP children and validate it.Methods From June 2023 to June 2024,198 children with MPP admitted to our hospital were included as the research subjects.They were randomly assigned into a modeling group of 139 cases and a validation group of 59 cases according to a 7∶3 ratio.The modeling group was separated into the infection group(44 cases)and the non infection group(95 cases)based on whether the patients had ADV infection.Logistic regression analysis was applied to screen risk factors for ADV infection in MPP patients.The R software and RMS package were applied to construct a normagram risk prediction model for ADV infection in MPP children.ROC curves and calibration graphs to verify the discrimination and consistency of models.Results The levels of serum CRP and ALT,and the proportions of wet rales,expiratory wheezing sound,pulmonary consolidation,and pleural effusion in the infection group were obviously increased(P＜0.05).CRP(OR=4.025),ALT(OR=1.767),expiratory wheezing sound(OR=26.759),pulmonary consolidation(OR=65.859),and pleural effusion(OR=68.110)were all influencing factors of ADV infection in MPP children(P＜0.05).The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the normagram model for predicting the risk of ADV infection in MPP children constructed by the modeling group was 0.943(95％CI=0.907-0.978),indicating good discrimination,and the calibration curve approached the ideal curve,the Hosmer-Lemeshow fitting test showed that,indicating good fitting(x2=0.730,P=0.999);the AUC of the normagram model for predicting the risk of ADV infection in MPP children constructed by the validation group was 0.908(95％CI=0.835-0.981),with good discrimination,the calibration curve approached the ideal curve,and the actual value was in good agreement with the predicted value.Conclusion Serum CRP,ALT,expiratory wheezing sound,pulmonary consolidation,and pleural effusion are all risk factors for ADV infection in MPP children.The normagram prediction model based on these risk factors can effectively evaluate the risk of ADV infection.
Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumoniaadenovirus infectionrisk factorsnormagram risk model
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