中国感染与化疗杂志2024,Vol.24Issue(1) :25-31.DOI:10.16718/j.1009-7708.2024.01.004

泉州地区艾滋病患者机会性感染现状及预后Nomogram预测模型的构建

Construction of a nomogram prediction model for the status and prognosis of opportunistic infections in HIV/AIDS patients in Quanzhou area

林永年 黄亚兰 邓金兰 邱燕燕 黄秋燕 刘江福 郭如意 高艺鹏
中国感染与化疗杂志2024,Vol.24Issue(1) :25-31.DOI:10.16718/j.1009-7708.2024.01.004

泉州地区艾滋病患者机会性感染现状及预后Nomogram预测模型的构建

Construction of a nomogram prediction model for the status and prognosis of opportunistic infections in HIV/AIDS patients in Quanzhou area

林永年 1黄亚兰 2邓金兰 2邱燕燕 1黄秋燕 1刘江福 1郭如意 1高艺鹏3
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作者信息

  • 1. 福建医科大学附属泉州第一医院感染病科,福建泉州 362000
  • 2. 福建省泉州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病防治科
  • 3. 福建省泉州市传染病防治医院
  • 折叠

摘要

目的 通过对泉州地区艾滋病(AIDS)患者机会性感染现状、临床特点及其预后的影响因素分析,为AIDS机会性感染的科学预防和治疗提供一定依据.方法 选取2017年1月-2022年1月于福建医科大学附属泉州第一医院确诊并接受住院治疗的172例AIDS合并机会性感染患者作为研究对象,收集患者一般资料和机会性感染情况,采用多变量Cox回归分析确定影响AIDS合并机会性感染患者预后的独立预测因子,将独立预测因素引入R软件,根据各因素回归系数绘制预后Nomogram模型.采用一致性指数(C-index)对该模型的区分度进行标定,利用校准图阐明Nomogram预测的预后与实际预后之间的关系,并采用决策曲线(DCA)对Nomogram模型的临床效用进行验证.结果 172例AIDS合并机会性感染患者中,机会性感染共有8种,其中细菌性肺炎占比最高,达54.65%,其次为口腔白斑,占51.74%,肺孢子菌肺炎占43.60%,带状疱疹占28.49%,肺结核占21.51%,感染性腹泻占19.77%,中枢神经系统感染占12.79%,巨细胞病毒感染最低,仅占10.47%.男性明显多于女性,18~39岁人群居多.年龄、感染种数、基因型耐药、CD4+T淋巴细胞水平是AIDS合并机会性感染患者预后的影响因素.校准曲线及DCA显示Nomogram预测模型具有较好的预测能力和临床有效性,且精准区分度较好.结论 年龄、感染种数、基因型耐药、CD4+T淋巴细胞水平等因素是影响AIDS合并机会性感染患者预后的主要因子,而构建Nomogram预测模型能发挥较好的临床预测能力和有效性,为临床早识别、早防控提供科学依据.

Abstract

Objective To analyze the status quo,clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of opportunistic infections in human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)infection/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)patients in Quanzhou for better prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections.Methods A total of 172 cases of HIV/AIDS patients with opportunistic infection treated in Quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University from January 2017 to January 2022 were identified.Clinical data and opportunistic infection details of the patients were collected and reviewed.Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors for the prognosis of HIV/AIDS patients with opportunistic infection.Independent prognostic factors were introduced into R software to construct a Nomogram prediction model of prognosis based on the regression coefficients of each factor.A C-index was used to calibrate this model.The relationship between prognosis predicted by nomogram and actual outcome was illustrated by the calibration chart.The clinical performance of this nomogram model was verified by decision curve analysis(DCA).Results The opportunistic infection included bacterial pneumonia(54.65%),followed by oral leukoplakia(51.74%),Pneumocystis pneumonia(43.60%),herpes zoster(28.49%),tuberculosis(21.51%),infectious diarrhea(19.77%),central nervous system infection(12.79%),and cytomegalovirus infection(10.47%)in the 172 AIDS patients.The opportunistic infection was found in significantly more males than in females.Majority of the patients were 18-39 years of age.Age,number of infections,genotypic drug resistance,and CD4+T lymphocyte level were factors predicting the prognosis of AIDS patients with opportunistic infection.Calibration curves and DCA showed that the Nomogram prediction model performed well in terms of predictive ability,clinical validity,and discriminative ability.Conclusions Age,number of infections,genotypic drug resistance,and CD4+T lymphocyte level are the main factors predicting the prognosis of AIDS patients with opportunistic infection.The nomogram prediction model performs well in terms of predictive ability and clinical validity,which is useful for improving early detection,prevention and control.

关键词

艾滋病/机会性感染/预测模型/预后

Key words

acquired immunodeficiency syndrome/opportunistic infection/prediction model/prognosis

引用本文复制引用

出版年

2024
中国感染与化疗杂志
复旦大学附属华山医院

中国感染与化疗杂志

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.776
ISSN:1009-7708
参考文献量22
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