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2024年全球矿业展望

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2023年,世界经济增速为 3%左右,连续第二年放缓,其中,发达经济体增速为 1.5%,发展中经济体为 4.0%.部分矿产资源国矿业GDP增速下降,影响了经济发展.受到矿业公司融资困难的影响,2023年全球矿产勘查投资小幅下降.锂、稀土继续成为矿产勘查投资热点,地区分布更为广泛.矿产品市场动荡分化,煤炭、天然气、镍、钴、锂等价格大幅下跌,而铀、铁矿石、镓、锗等价格上涨.并购成为矿山企业保持竞争力的选择,矿业投资和经营风险创多年来新高.更多国家调整或新出台关键矿产目录,制定矿产资源战略保障安全供应的文件.展望 2024年,经历连续两年的经济下行之后,世界经济有望逐步企稳,但仍面临地缘冲突加剧、政局不稳、气候变化等多方面的挑战,关键矿产投资将持续增长,原油、铁矿石等大宗矿产供求关系发生变化,矿业企业经营面临的挑战增多,供应链本土化战略可能长期影响主要经济体的矿业政策.
Global mining outlook in 2024
In 2023,the world economic growth rate was about 3%,slowdown for the second consecutive year,with developed economies at 1.5%and developing economies at 4.0%.The growth rate of mining GDP has declined in some countries with rich mineral resources,which has affected their economic development.Global mineral exploration investment declined slightly in 2023,influenced by the financing difficulties of mining companies.Lithium and rare earths have been hot spots for mineral exploration investment,with wider regional distribution.The mineral commodity market is turbulent and divided.The prices of coal,natural gas,nickel,cobalt,and lithium have fallen sharply,while the prices of uranium,iron ore,gallium,and germanium have increased.M&A has become the option for mining companies to maintain competitiveness,and investment and operating risks have reached record highs in many years.More countries have updated or introduced new critical mineral lists,and formulated strategies to secure supply.Looking forward to 2024,after two consecutive years of downturn,the world economy is expected to gradually stabilize,but it still faces many challenges,such as intensified geopolitical conflicts,political instability,climate change,etc.Investment in critical minerals will continue to grow,and the balance of supply and demand will change for bulk minerals such as crude oil,iron ore.Mining companies are facing increasing challenges in operations,and the supply chain domestication strategy may have a long-term impact for major economies to draft mining policies.

world economyglobal miningcritical mineralgeopoliticsdeep-sea mining

闫卫东、胡容波、林博磊、孙春强、于江薇、赵云

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自然资源部信息中心,北京 100812

世界经济 全球矿业 关键矿产 地缘政治 深海采矿

自然资源部项目

121101000000180048

2024

中国矿业
中国矿业联合会

中国矿业

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.875
ISSN:1004-4051
年,卷(期):2024.33(1)
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