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新质生产力与矿产资源新格局

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根据矿产资源安全巨系统理论,科技子系统是原始动力,驱动经济子系统变化,经济子系统变化又会驱动地缘政治子系统变化,同时,自然子系统的变化也会引起其他子系统变化,各子系统变化均会对矿产资源子系统产生重大影响.本文以矿产资源安全巨系统理论为指导,分析了新质生产力、气候变化、地缘政治等对全球矿产资源格局的影响,认为:新质生产力发展正改变工业化发展模式,后发国家承接产业转移的难度加大,现有矿产资源消费中心地位或将巩固,新的消费中心出现难度加大;新质生产力将改变人类矿产资源使用的终极形态,化石能源不再作为能源而是作为材料利用,金属成为能源之母;人工智能对能源的需求将大幅增长,各国对能源的争夺会愈演愈烈;美国脱钩断链正在破坏全球矿产资源安全,现有矿产资源储量难以满足未来需求,资源问题将成为制约各国生产力发展的重要约束.建议世界各国采取措施保障供应:一是加强国际间资源合作;二是加大勘查力度;三是加强矿产资源循环利用;四是加大低品位、共伴生资源的开发利用;五是大力加强资源节约利用.
New quality productive forces and new pattern of mineral resources
According to the theory of giant system of mineral resources security,the scientific and technological subsystem is the original driving force,which drives the change of the economic subsystem,and the change of the economic subsystem will drive the change of the geopolitical subsystem,and at the same time,the change of the natural subsystem will also cause the change of other subsystems,and the change of each subsystem will have a significant impact on the mineral resources subsystem.Guided by the theory of giant system of mineral resources security,this paper analyzes the impact of new quality productive forces,climate change,and geopolitics on the global mineral resources pattern:the development of new quality productive forces is changing the industrialization development model,and it is more difficult for late-developing countries to undertake industrial transfer,the status of existing mineral resources consumption centers may be consolidated,and the emergence of new consumption centers is more difficult;new quality productive forces will change the ultimate form of human mineral resource use,fossil energy is no longer used as energy but as a material,and metals become the source of energy;the demand for energy from artificial intelligence will increase significantly,and the competition for energy will intensify;the decoupling and disconnection of the chain in the United States is undermining the security of global mineral resources,and the existing mineral resource reserves are difficult to meet future demand.It is suggested that all countries in the world should take measures to ensure supply:firstly,strengthen international cooperation;secondly,increase exploration efforts;thirdly,strengthen the recycling of mineral resources;fourthly,increase the development and utilization of low-grade and co-associated resources;fifthly,increase the economical utilization of resources.

new quality productive forcesmineral resourcesenergynew industrializationsupply and demand

陈其慎、张艳飞、邢佳韵、龙涛、郑国栋、王琨、任鑫

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中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京 100037

新质生产力 矿产资源 能源 新型工业化 供需

中国地调局地质调查二级项目国家自然科学基金

DD2023004042271281

2024

中国矿业
中国矿业联合会

中国矿业

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.875
ISSN:1004-4051
年,卷(期):2024.33(5)
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