Analysis of lithium supply and demand situation based on lithium deposits and resources characteristics from 2024 to 2035,China
Lithium ore,as one of the strategic minerals in China,provides an important support for the development of China's strategic emerging industries.It is also a kind of the new energy minerals for fostering and developing new quality productive forces.And lithium ore products such as lithium carbonate are the basic raw materials for the development of the lithium battery industry.Lithium resources are the material foundation for the high-quality development of China's lithium industry.The types of lithium deposits in China are complex and divers.Lithium resources are abundant with poor resource endowment and lower supply.Since the development of China's lithium battery industry in 2000,the consumption of lithium has been continuously increasing,and the external dependence of lithium ore products such as lithium concentrate has remained high.In this paper,types deposits,characteristics of retained resource reserves,ore quality and spatial distribution of lithium in China have been studied comprehensively.By using methods such as lithium ore availability evaluation,the mine supply of lithium and the secondary lithium recovery in China from 2024 to 2035 have been analyzed and predicted.By using mineral resources demand prediction methods and models such as the lithium sector consumption method and grey model method,the lithium demand has been evaluated.Based on prediction results of lithium supply and demand above,the supply and demand situation of lithium has been analyzed scientifically.The research results in this paper show that:① the proportion of salt lake brine type has decreased to 38.24%,while the proportion of hard-rock lithium deposit type increased to 61.76%,this kind of"one increase and one decrease"has reshaped the lithium reserves pattern in China,from"more in the north and less in the south"to"less in the north and more in the south".② For lithium supply side,the total lithium supply includes mine supply of lithium and secondary lithium recovery.In the reference scenario with lithium carbonate price of 100 000 yuan/t and internal rate of return(IRR=10%),the mine supply of lithium(LCE)in 2025,2030,and 2035 will reach 227 700 tons,214 700 tons,and 214 700 tons,respectively,in China.The secondary lithium recovery(LCE)correspondingly will be 75 000 tons,271 900 tons,and 600 000 tons,respectively.③ For the lithium demand,the lithium demand(LCE)in China will reach 1.072 9 million tons,1.727 2 million tons,and 2.316 8 million tons at three time points,respectively,indicating a continuous growth trend of lithium demand.④ The lithium supply and demand situation is severe in China from 2024 to 2035.With the rapid development of the lithium battery industry,the trend of demand exceeding supply is constantly intensifying,at the three time points,the domestic guaranteed rate of mine supply of lithium for industrial development demand are about 21.22%,12.43%,and 9.26%,respectively.If the secondary lithium recovery is included,the lithium supply and demand situation in China will be somewhat alleviated.At the three time points,the guarantee rates of total lithium supply for industrial development are 28.21%,28.17%,and 35.16%,respectively,while the trend of supply exceeding demand will continue for a period of time in the future.Five countermeasures for the development of the lithium resources industry have been proposed.Firstly,the geological exploration of lithium ore will be strengthened;secondly,the role and status of enterprise technological innovation should be highlighted towards the key links in the entire lithium mining industry chain;thirdly,the recycling and utilization of secondary lithium will be emphasized;fourthly,the strategic reserves of lithium ore resources and products will be increased;fifthly,"going out"utilizing overseas lithium ore resources and products should be carried out.The conclusions and suggestions researched in this paper have certain practical significance for China to formulate the"15th Five Year Plan"of lithium resources,and carry out lithium resources management policies.
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