Comparison of prognostic value of different scoring systems in elderly patients with acute pancreatitis based on the newly revised Atlanta criteria
Objective To compare the early predictive value of different scoring systems for the severity,organ failure and complications of acute pancreatitis(AP)in elderly patients under the newly revised Atlanta criteria.Methods Patients with acute pancreatitis treated was collected.After admission,complete the computed tomography severity index(CTSI),the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP),the pancreatis 3(PANC-3)and the harmlessness acute pancreatitis score(HAPS).The area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),sensitivity,specificity and Yordan's index of four scores for predicting SAP,local pancreatic complications and multiple organ failure were compared.Results The areas under the ROC curve predicted by the CTSI,BISAP,PANC-3 and HAPS scoring systems for SAP were 0.76,0.91,0.48 and 0.55;sensitivities of 75.87％,89.61％,61.18％and 78.38％;specificity of 80.29％,74.72％,67.48％and 69.69％;Yordan's index of 0.56,0.64,0.29 and 0.48,respectively.The AUC of CTSI,BISAP,PANC-3 and HAPS scoring systems for predicting local pancreatic complications were 0.94,0.82,0.59 and 0.64;sensitivity of 74.59％,68.23％,71.11％and 69.28％;specificity of 93.88％,83.01％,78.59％and 76.46％;Yordan's index were 0.68,0.51,0.50 and 0.46,respectively.The AUC of CTSI,BISAP,PANC-3 and HAPS scoring systems for predicting multiple organ failure were 0.60,0.84,0.64 and 0.80,sensitivities were 54.18％,74.82％,58.59％and 65.67％,specificity were 76.11％,77.20％,72.68％and 89.36％,Jordan's indices were 0.30,0.52,0.31 and 0.55,respectively.Conclusion BISAP score is higher than CTSI,HAPS and PANC-3 scoring system in predicting the accuracy of sap and the risk of multiple organ failure.
Atlanta criteriaacute pancreatitiselderlyprognosisprediction
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