摘要
为了定量分析直升机事故的主要致因,本文以美国某起直升机事故为例,使用灰色理论(Grey Model,GM)对功能共振分析法(Functional Resonance Analysis Method,FRAM)进行改进,建立FRAM-GM模型.剖析了该架直升机从维修到坠毁的整个过程,找出引发该事故的重要失效功能连接路径并提出对应屏障措施.理论层面上,经过后验差检验,后验差比值c＜0.35,小误差概率P＞0.95,预测精准可靠;直观层面上,使用Matlab研究了预测值和专家评分之间的相关关系,结果表明预测值与专家评分之间有强相关性,验证了该模型在直升机事故原因分析中具有可行性,为通航领域事故分析提供一定理论依据.
Abstract
In order to quantitatively analyze the main causes of helicopter accidents,this paper takes a helicopter accident in the United States as an example and employs Grey Model(GM)to improve the Functional Resonance Analysis Method(FRAM)and establish the FRAM-GM Model.This paper analyzes the whole process from maintenance to release of the helicopter engine to find out the important connection path of the failure function causing the accident and proposes the corresponding barrier measures.On a theoretical level,after posterior difference tests are conducted,the posterior difference ratio c is found to be less than 0.35,and the small error probability P is greater than 0.95,indicating precise and reliable prediction.On a visual level,by using Matlab to explore the correlation between predicted values and expert scores,the results shows a strong correlation between them,confirming the feasibility of this model for analyzing the causes of helicopter accidents and providing a theoretical basis for accident analysis in the general aviation field.
基金项目
四川省科技计划资助应用基础研究项目(2021YJ0537)
中国民用航空飞行学院通航专项研究项目(THZX2018-09)
维普
万方数据