Objective To analyze and predict the suitable areas for Marmota himalayana in Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture(Golog Prefecture),China using ecological niche models,so as to provide a theoretical basis for scientific and efficient plague host surveillance in the future.Methods According to field survey data on the longitude and latitude of 96 M.himalayana distribution points as well as data on elevation and climate(19 factors)from the WorldClim website,the suitable areas of M.himalayana in Golog Prefecture were modeled using a maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and ArcGIS 10.6 software,and the results were evaluated through the receivers operating characteristic curve(ROC).Results The area under the curve(AUC)of the MaxEnt was 0.928,indicating that the prediction results of the model were reliable.The percentage contribution rate of the top five factors in descending order were precipitation of the driest month(35.7%),temperature seasonality(26.3%),precipitation seasonality(20.5%),monthly average diurnal temperature range(10.2%),and elevation(7.3%).When the monthly average diurnal temperature range was 14.7℃,the temperature seasonality was 800,the precipitation of the driest month was 2.4 mm,the precipitation seasonality was 95,and the elevation was 3 720 m,their respective response curves reached the highest.The highly suitable area for M.himalayana in Golog Prefecture was estimated at 2 445.24 km2,and the moderately suitable area was estimated at 4 240.76 km2,which were mainly located in Maqen County and Gade County.Conclusions The MaxEnt model can produce reliable prediction results that are consistent with the actual situation,providing a scientific and efficient theoretical basis for plague surveillance in the future.The highly and moderately suitable habitats of M.himalayana are largely located in Maqen and Gade counties,where surveillance should be strengthened.
维普
万方数据