Research on Carbon Emission Prediction and Peak Path of Cement Industry Based on BP Neural Network Model:A Case Study of Xuzhou
To study the pathway for carbon neutrality and peak carbon emissions in the cement industry,the CO2 emissions of the cement industry in Xuzhou City from 1995 to 2021 were calculated with the carbon emission factor method.The BP neural network model was used to evaluate the CO2 emissions of the cement industry,and the CO2 emissions from 2022 to 2030 were predicted based on different scenarios.The results indicate that from 1995 to 2021,the CO2 emissions from the cement industry in Xuzhou City ranged from 7.3678 million tons to 27.3227 million tons.The overall CO2 emissions in the cement industry show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.After reaching a peak of 27.3227 million tons in 2010,carbon emissions gradually fluctuated and decreased to 8.1281 million tons in 2021.The BP neural network model is feasible for predicting CO2 emissions in the cement industry.Based on the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario,and enhanced low-carbon scenario,the BP neural network model is used to predict the carbon emissions of the cement industry in Xuzhou City from 2022 to 2030.It is found that under the baseline scenario,the CO2 emissions of the cement industry in Xuzhou City in 2030 are 24.8475 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of about 22.86%compared to 2021.Under the low-carbon scenario,the CO2 emissions in 2030 are 19.798 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of about 15.95%.Under the strengthened low-carbon scenario,the CO2 emissions in 2030 will be 15.0243 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of about 9.43%.It is recommended to implement CO2 emission reduction from various aspects such as policy and technological upgrading,to help the cement industry in Xuzhou achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
BP neural network modelcarbon emission predictioncarbon peak path
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