Construction and evaluation of a scoring system for predicting AECOPD extended hospitalization based on age and serum inflammatory factors
Objective To explore the relationship between age,serum inflammatory factors and prolonged hospitalization in patients with AECOPD,to construct a scoring system based on age and serum inflammatory factors,and to evaluate it's predictive ability.Methods The clinical information of three hundred and ninety-one patients with AECOPD admitted to the affiliated Hospital of North China University of Science and Tech-nology from October 2020 to October 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to the average hospital stay of 16 days in AECOPD,the patients were divided into a standard-length group(n=260)and an over-time group(n=131).The independent risk factors associated with AECOPD were screened out to construct a scoring system.Results Age,hs-CRP,SA A and PCT were independent risk factors for prolonged hospi-talization of AECOPD patients in the AECOPD standard length group and overtime length group,while WBC,NEU,FIB and ESR were not independent risk factors for prolonged hospitalization of AECOPD pa-tients.According to the maximum principle of the Jorden index,the critical value of prediction was screened and Kappa value was calculated.The area under the curve(AUC)of the model was 0.899.Sensitivity was 82.4％,and specificity was 86.2％.Kappa value was 0.669,which had a good predictive value and calculation result.Conclusion The established scoring system for predicting prolonged hospitalization of AECOPD pa-tients has a certain accuracy,and early identification and intervention of high-risk patients in this kind of pa-tients has a certain guidance and application value for clinicians'decision-making.
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