Trend and future trend analysis of ischemic heart disease burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyze the current status and long-term trend of ischemic heart disease(IHD)burden due to high fasting plasma glucose(HFPG)in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trend from 2020 to 2034,and provide the basis for formulating the measures of IHD prevention and treatment.Methods On the basis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019)database,the disease burden data of IHD attributable to HFPG in China from1990 to 2019 were extracted.R 4.2.3 software was used to organize the data,,the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),disability-adjusted life-years(DALY),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)were used to evaluate the disease burden;the Joinpoint 5.0.2 regression software and the age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the disease burden trend and the change trend of mortality increasing with age or time of period and queue,and R language was used to predict the IHD mortality rates attributable to HFPG in China from 2020 to 2034.Results The disease burden of IHD attributed to HFPG of China in 2019 was higher than that in 1990,the number of death,ASMR,DALY,and ASDR increased 258.95％,28.97％,190.26％,and 18.02％,respectively.In terms of gender,the disease burden in males was generally higher than that in females.Regarding age groups,the peak values of death cases and DALY gradually shifted to higher age groups,with mortality and DALY rate increasing in 2019 compared to 1990 for all age groups except 50～69 age group,with the most significant increases in the 80～84 and 30-34 age groups.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the overall average annual percent change of ASMR was 0.68％(P＜0.05);the increase rate in males was higher than that in females.The net offset value of mortality in the age-period-cohort model was 1.09％(95％CI:0.90％-1.30％).The age effect indicated the rapid increase of the mortality rate around 72.5 years old,the period and cohort effects showed that the relative risk of mortality generally had an increasing trend with the year.Predication indicated that from 2020 to 2034,the ASMR of IHD attributed to HFPG in Chinese males and females can decrease approximately to 22.90/105 and 11.77/105,respectively;however,the number of death can increase to 1 389 875 and 930 853 cases in males and females,respectively.Conclusion In the future,the disease burden of IHD attributable to HFPG in China will continue to be severe,and scientific glycemic control should be carried out,focusing on men and the elderly,and timely preventing the development trend of disease at a younger age.
High fasting plasma glucoseIschemic heart diseaseDisease burdenPrediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
