Comparison and application of prediction methods of life expectancy
Objection To Compare the accuracy of the autoregressive moving average(ARIMA)model,grey model(GM),joinpoint model,and Lee-Carter model for predicting average life expectancy,and provide the basis for measuring the target value of life expectancy.Methods Chinese mortality data by age groups of the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD 2019)from 1990 to 2015 were used,R 4.2.0 software was used to compare and evaluate the accuracy of the 4 models in predicting life expectancy in 2019,the method with the highest screening accuracy was used to analyze the data of Zhejiang province from 1990 to 2019,and the average life expectancy in Zhejiang province in 2025 was forecasted.R 4.2.0 software was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual Percentage change(AAPC),so as to describe the change trend.Results The Lee-Carter model had the highest accuracy in predicting average life expectancy in 2019 in China,the mean square deviation was 0.005,root mean square error was 0.072,mean absolute error was 0.063,and mean absolute percentage error was 0.081.The actual value of Chinese average life expectancy in 2019 calculated by GBD data was 77.71 years old,which predicted by Lee-Carter model,ARIMA model,GM model,and Joinpoin was 77.70,78.26,78.42 and 78.51 years old,respectively.The average life expectancy in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing trend year by year,AAPC was 0.44(P＜0.01),segmented APC showed the fastest rising rate(APC=0.84％)from 2004 to 2007,and the slowest rising rate(APC=0.18％)from 2016 to 2019(P＜0.01).Based on the Lee-Carter model,the average life expectancy in Zhejiang in 2025 is 83.35 years old.Conclusion In the case of a long time series,Lee-Carter model has the highest accuracy for the prediction of life expectancy and is more suitable for the measurement of target values.
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