首页|1990-2021年中国及分省人群结直肠癌疾病负担分析

1990-2021年中国及分省人群结直肠癌疾病负担分析

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目的 了解1990-2021年中国及各省(地区)结直肠癌疾病负担及变化趋势,为结直肠癌科学防控提供依据.方法 利用全球疾病负担研究2021(GBD2021)中国及分省数据,采用SAS 9.4进行数据整理和分析,以新发病例数、死亡例数、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、标化发病率、标化死亡率以及DALY标化率为指标分析1990-2021年结直肠癌疾病负担现状.采用Joinpoint 5.0.2分析1990-2021年结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC).采用死亡数变化原因分解法,分析人口老龄化、人口增长和年龄别死亡率原因对1990-2021年全国及各地区结直肠癌死亡数变化的贡献度.结果 2021年中国结直肠癌新发病例数、死亡数和DALY分别为65.83万例、27.51万例和684.84万人年,标化率分别为31.44/10万、13.64/10万和331.73/10万.1990-2021年中国结直肠癌发病例数、死亡数、DALY上升,总人群变化率分别为 315.63%、130.61%和 92.09%,男性变化率(374.16%、163.30%、120.03%)均高于女性(241.78%、89.81%、54.73%);结直肠癌标化发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=1.66%,P<0.05),男性年均变化速度(AAPC=2.12%,P<0.05)高于女性(AAPC=0.94%,P<0.05);而结直肠癌标化死亡率与标化DALY率呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为-0.41%、-0.53%,P<0.05),其中女性均呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为-1.10%、-1.34%,P<0.05),男性变化趋势均无统计学意义(AAPC分别为0.06%、-0.02%,P>0.05).人口老龄化、人口增长和年龄别死亡率原因对1990-2021年中国结直肠癌死亡人数增加的贡献度分别为141.90%、20.93%和-32.22%,地区间导致死亡数增长的原因存在较大差异.结论 中国结直肠癌疾病负担较为严重,从全国层面来看,人口老龄化是造成中国结直肠癌死亡数增加的主要原因.应系统掌握结直肠癌在各地的流行趋势及变化特点,精准识别高风险地区和人群并实施个性化的预防和干预措施,从而实现对结直肠癌的全面预防和控制,提升我国居民整体健康水平.
Burden of colorectal cancer in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021:findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Objective To understand the burden of colorectal cancer(CRC)in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021 and provide evidence for the prevention and control measures of CRC.Methods The study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 of China and its provinces and used SAS 9.4 for analysis.It employed indicators including incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)to assess the burden of CRC.To identify the temporal trend,joinpoint regression was applied to estimate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)from 1990 to 2021.To investigate the major contributor of changes of mortality across years,national and subnational deaths were decomposed into three components including change due to age structure of population,change due to population growth and change due to age-specific mortality.Results In 2021,the number of incidence,mortality and DALY of CRC in China were 65.83 ten thousand,27.51 ten thousand and 684.84 ten thousand person years,respectively.The age-standardized rates were 31.44/105,13.64/105 and 331.73/105 accordingly.From 1990 to 2021,the number of incidences,deaths,and DALY increased by 315.63%,130.61%and 92.09%respectively in China,with higher growth rates in males(incidences:374.16%;deaths:163.30%;DALY:120.03%)than in females(incidences:241.78%;deaths:89.81%;DALY:54.73%).The age-standardized incidence rate for CRC showed upward trend(AAPC=1.66%,P<0.05)during study period,and higher increase was observed in males(males:AAPC=2.12%,P<0.05;females:AAPC=0.94%,P<0.05).In contrast,the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALY dropped(AAPC values were-0.41%and-0.53%respectively,P<0.05)with greater decrease observed in females(AAPC values of females were-1.10%and-1.34%respectively,P<0.05;AAPC values of males were 0.06%and-0.02%respectively,P>0.05).From 1990 to 2021,the contributions of population aging,population growth,and age-specific mortality to the increase of CRC deaths were 141.90%,20.93%and-32.22%respectively.However,the main contributors for the increase in CRC deaths varied significantly across regions.Conclusion CRC results in severe public-health consequences in China.Population aging is the primary driver of the rising number of CRC deaths at national level.It is essential to understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of CRC in different regions.Identifying regions with higher risk is crucial to implement measures of prevention and control of CRC,and therefore could enhance the overall health of the Chinese population.

Colorectal cancerGlobal Burden of Disease 2021Temporal trendDeath decompositionRegional variation

周梓芳、闫范书、殷鹏、周脉耕、王黎君

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中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室,北京 100050

中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心

结直肠癌 全球疾病负担2021 变化趋势 死亡数分解分析 地区差异

2024

中国慢性病预防与控制
中华预防医学会,天津市疾病预防控制中心

中国慢性病预防与控制

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.093
ISSN:1004-6194
年,卷(期):2024.32(12)