首页|武汉市老年人腰围身高比与全因死亡及疾病别死亡关联的队列研究

武汉市老年人腰围身高比与全因死亡及疾病别死亡关联的队列研究

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目的 了解2012年武汉市老年人群腰围身高比与全因死亡及不同疾病死亡的相关性,为明确老年人群腰围身高比和死亡风险的关联提供数据支持.方法 研究数据来自武汉市基本公共卫生服务项目,选取2012年参与体检的老年人作为基线人群,最终331 052人纳入分析.本研究对所纳入的调查对象进行生存状况的随访,随访时间截至2019年12月31日.采用SAS9.4软件及R 4.1.3软件进行x2检验、Cox比例风险模型分析及分层分析,通过敏感性分析检验结果的稳健性.结果 调查对象基线时年龄为(72.1±5.7)岁,男性154 125人(46.6%),女性176 927人(53.4%),腰围身高比0~0.47,0.48~0.51,0.52~0.54以及≥0.55的占比分别为25.1%、28.2%、19.1%和27.6%.Cox比例风险模型分析结果显示,以腰围身高比为 0~0.47 为参照组,腰围身高比为 0.48~0.51(HR=1.03,95%CI:1.01~1.05),0.52~0.54(HR=1.04,95%CI:1.02~1.07)以及≥0.55(HR=1.10,95%CI:1.08~1.13)的调查对象的全因死亡风险均更高;老年人腰围身高比每增加0.1个单位导致全因死亡风险、恶性肿瘤死亡风险、心血管疾病死亡风险、糖尿病死亡风险和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加9%、3%、10%、24%和13%.按BMI进行分层后,体质量过低、体质量正常和肥胖人群中,腰围身高比每增加0.1个单位死亡风险分别增加16%、8%和7%.剔除基线后1年和2年死亡的个案后,以腰围身高比0~0.47为参照组,腰围身高比为0.48~0.51,0.52~0.54以及≥0.55的调查对象的全因死亡风险均更高,与未经删除处理的模型结果无明显差异.结论 65岁以上老年人群的全因死亡和主要慢性疾病的死亡风险随着腰围身高比的增加而增加,腰围身高比可作为社区老年人死亡风险预测的参考指标.
Correlation between waist-to-height ratio and all-cause/cause-specific death of elderly in Wuhan:a cohort study
Objective To investigate the association between waist-to-height ratio(WHtR)and mortality in elderly population of Wuhan in 2012,and provide evidence to support WHtR as a dependable index for assessing mortality risk in older adults.Methods The data were derived from Wuhan's Basic Public Health Service Program for older people(aged 65 and above)and included demographic information,lifestyles,medical history and physical measurements such as height and circumference,which administered by face-to-face interview.2012 was defined as baseline,and 331 052 individuals were finally included in the analyses.Vital status for each participant was identified through linkage to China Population Death Information Registration System by December 31,2019.Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to estimate hazard ratios(HR)of WHtR for mortality risk with person-years as time scale.Stratified analyses were conducted by sex,age group,marital status,body mass index(BMI),smoking status,alcohol use,physical activity and chronic condition.The association between each 0.1 unit increase in WHtR and mortality were examined within subgroups as well.Besides,series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the association between WHtR and mortality.The study utilized SAS 9.4 and R 4.1.3 and employed the Chi-Square test to compare the differences between groups.Results The average age of participates at baseline was(72.1±5.7)years old,with males and females accounting for 46.6%and 53.4%respectively.Participates with WHtR of 0-0.47,0.48-0.51,0.52-0.54 and≥0.55 were accounted for 25.1%,28.2%,19.1%and 27.6%,respectively.The adjusted HR values for WHtR 0.48-0.51,0.52-0.54 and ≥ 0.55 were 1.03(95%CI:1.01-1.05),1.04(95%CI:1.02-1.07)and 1.10(95%CI:1.08-1.13)respectively,with WHtR of 0-0.47 as reference.For older individuals,each 0.1 unit increase in WHtR was associated with 9%higher risk of all-cause mortality and 3%,10%,24%and 13%higher risk of mortality due to cancer,cardiovascular disease(CVD),diabetes and respiratory disease.Additionally,mortality risk was elevated by 16%,8%and 7%in those being underweight,normal weight and obese respectively.No profound differences had been observed compared with overall association between WHtR and mortality risks in sensitive analyses.Conclusion With significantly positive WHtR-mortality association in elderly population,WHtR emerges as a robust predictor for assessing the risk of death among older adults in community settings.

Basic Public Health Service ProgramWaist-to-height ratioAll-cause deathElderlySurvival analysis

罗俊、周梓芳、朱朝阳、赵原原、张微、张刚、代娟、张晓霞、闫范书、殷鹏、严亚琼

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武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢非传与伤害防制所,湖北省武汉 430024

中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室,北京 100050

基本公共卫生服务项目 腰围身高比 全因死亡 老年人 生存分析

2024

中国慢性病预防与控制
中华预防医学会,天津市疾病预防控制中心

中国慢性病预防与控制

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.093
ISSN:1004-6194
年,卷(期):2024.32(12)