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福清夜间云、风、湿度对最低气温的影响

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为了更准确做出最低气温的临近预报,为果农或农户提供防冻(寒)害预警服务,以年度极端最低气温与当晚20点的温差与当晚天气状况进行相关分析,估算当晚的降温幅度,进而预测次日最低气温。据福清50多年的资料统计分析结果表明:(1)年度极端最低气温同当晚20点的温差与同时次的相对湿度相关最为密切,故可用20点的相对湿度来估算当晚的降温幅度,结合当晚20点的气温便可预测次日凌晨可能出现的最低气温;(2)据各乡镇自动站同市气象局的低温差,可预测各乡镇次日凌晨的最低气温,该低温若低于当地的主栽果树和经济作物冻(寒)害指标,可告知果农或农户,要采取喷灌(或灌水)、熏烟等防冻措施,以避免或减轻因低温造成的冻(寒)害。作为临近预报的补充工具对提高低温预报精度大有补益,可为果农或农户采取防冻(寒)害措施提供依据。
The Influence of Cloud, Wind and Humidity in the Night to the Lowest Temperature in Fuqing
In order to nowcast the lowest temperature correctly, and then provide early freeters’freezing injury to famers, the author analyzed the correlation between the temperature difference of annual lowest temperature and the temperature at 8:00 pm of the same night and the weather condition of that night, estimated the range of temperature dropping of that night, and finally got the lowest temperature of the next day. The analysis of data of more than 50 years of Fuqing showed that: (1) the temperature difference of annual lowest temperature and the temperature at 8:00 pm of the same night had the closet correlation with the relative humidity of the same time, so the relative humidity at 8:00 pm could be used to estimate the temperature dropping, then combined with the temperature at 8:00 pm, the lowest temperature of the next morning could be predicted. (2) By analyzing the difference of low temperature between the temperature of primary observation station and the temperature of different automated observation station installed in different towns, the lowest temperature of respective towns could be predicted. If the predicted low temperature was lower than the freezing injury index of local principle fruiters and crops, the fruit growers and farmers could be informed the freeze-proofing measures which included sprinkling irrigation and fumigation, the freezing injury caused by low temperature could be avoided or be mitigated. The study could be an additional tool for nowcasting, could enhance the ability of low temperature prediction, and provide the freezing injury mitigation basis for the fruit growers and farmers.

the lowest temperaturecloud coverrelative humiditycorrelation analysisearly warning

俞成标、俞诗雯、陈源高、严娟

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福建省福清市气象局,福建福清 350300

福建省闽侯县气象局,福建闽侯 350100

最低气温 云量 相对湿度 相关分析 预警

2010J03

2013

中国农学通报
中国农学会

中国农学通报

CSTPCDCSCD
影响因子:0.891
ISSN:1000-6850
年,卷(期):2013.(14)
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