Precipitation Forecasting Verification Based on EC Ensemble Prediction Products
The paper aims to test the application performance of EC ensemble prediction products.Based on the 5 products:probability of EC ensemble forecast to match average precipitation,fusion precipitation,median,mode and control forecast precipitation,and with the TS score method,the authors tested the precipitation forecast in flood season in Inner Mongolia in 2014.The results showed that differences existed among product' s ability to grasp the process,there was a high score on ensemble forecast of the precipitation process,for heavy rain and above,there was a large scale precipitation forecast deviation,the forecast effect was poorer.Average TS score results showed that the ensemble forecast products,especially the probability forecast,had certain reference value,the second was control forecast and fusion products.
Inner MongoliaEC ensemble predictionTS scorerainfall in flood season
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
