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阳泉市玉米生育期气象要素变化特征及相关性分析

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为研究阳泉市玉米生育期气象要素变化趋势及对玉米产量的影响,采用M-K突变检验、Spearman相关性检验等方法,对2002-2021年阳泉市4-9月6个气象要素的日数据、逐年玉米产量数据进行分析,探讨玉米气象产量与气象要素之间的相关性及作用程度.分析发现,玉米生育期内平均气温、日最高最低气温均呈上升趋势,2018年后平均气温和最低气温增温显著;相对湿度、光照时数呈下降趋势,降水量呈上升趋势,变化趋势均不显著.2002-2021年阳泉市玉米实际产量总体呈现出波动上升的变化趋势,趋势产量表现为先快速增加再缓慢减少,气象产量总体呈缓慢增长趋势,但年际间差异明显.平均相对湿度和最高气温对气象产量影响最大,达到极显著相关水平;其次为降水量和平均气温,为显著性相关;最低气温和日照时数与气象产量相关性不显著.研究结果可为优化本地农业资源结构、促进地区农业可持续发展提供理论支撑.
Variation Characteristics and Correlation Analysis of Meteorological Elements During Maize Growth Period in Yangquan City
In order to study the variation trend of meteorological factors in maize growth period and their influence on maize yield,the daily data of six meteorological factors and annual maize yield data in Yangquan City from April to September of 2002 to 2021 were analyzed using different methods such as M-K mutation test and Spearman correlation test.It was found that the average temperature,daily maximum and daily minimum temperature all showed an increasing trend during maize growth period,and the average temperature and daily minimum temperature increased significantly after 2018.The relative humidity and sunshine hours showed a downward trend,while the precipitation showed an upward trend,and the change trend was not significant.From 2002 to 2021,the actual yield of maize in Yangquan City showed a fluctuating upward trend,while the trend yield was rapid increased and then slow decreased,and the meteorological output showed a slow growth trend,but the difference between years was obvious.Average relative humidity and maximum temperature had the greatest influence on meteorological yield,reaching extremely significant correlation level,followed by precipitation and average temperature,showing significant correlation level,while minimum temperature and sunshine hours had no significant correlation with meteorological yield.The results can provide theoretical support for optimizing the structure of agricultural resources and promoting the sustainable development of regional agriculture.

maize growth periodmeteorological elementsM-K mutation testmeteorological yield

马晓玲、周焱博、袁杰、张建军、贾立亭

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山西省晋城市气象局,山西晋城 048000

山西省阳泉市气象局,山西阳泉 045000

玉米生育期 气象要素 M-K突变检验 气象产量

阳泉市气象局一般项目山西省气象局面上项目

YQKYBQH20220001SXKMSQH20226307

2024

中国农学通报
中国农学会

中国农学通报

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.891
ISSN:1000-6850
年,卷(期):2024.40(7)
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